Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-31 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-31

54 matched props 21 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-01 Older: 2026-07-30

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 21

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-31 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-31/strikeout_edges_2026-07-31.json

Paul Skenes

PIT vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.08

Strongest Gap Under +25.65%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -161 / U +118

Over gap -33.21% / Under gap +25.65%

Under +25.65%

FanDuel

7.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -27.66% / Under gap +21.52%

Under +21.52%

BetMGM

8.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -28.52% / Under gap +20.90%

Under +20.90%

Model O 28.5% | U 71.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 85.7

Brandon Young

BAL vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.84

Strongest Gap Under +17.23%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -23.40% / Under gap +17.23%

Under +17.23%

DraftKings

4.5

O -139 / U +106

Over gap -23.93% / Under gap +17.23%

Under +17.23%

BetMGM

4.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -23.22% / Under gap +15.77%

Under +15.77%

Model O 34.2% | U 65.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.9

Janson Junk

MIA vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.23

Strongest Gap Under +15.84%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap -21.92% / Under gap +15.84%

Under +15.84%

BetMGM

3.5

O -165 / U +125

Over gap -22.35% / Under gap +15.65%

Under +15.65%

DraftKings

3.5

O -157 / U +123

Over gap -21.18% / Under gap +15.25%

Under +15.25%

Model O 39.9% | U 60.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.9

Dylan Cease

TOR vs STL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.88

Strongest Gap Under +13.22%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O -137 / U +107

Over gap -19.34% / Under gap +13.22%

Under +13.22%

FanDuel

7.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap -18.05% / Under gap +12.03%

Under +12.03%

BetMGM

7.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -17.09% / Under gap +10.31%

Under +10.31%

Model O 38.5% | U 61.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.8

Nathan Eovaldi

TEX vs HOU | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.38

Strongest Gap Under +10.90%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -16.89% / Under gap +10.90%

Under +10.90%

DraftKings

5.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap -15.63% / Under gap +9.65%

Under +9.65%

BetMGM

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -15.82% / Under gap +8.53%

Under +8.53%

Model O 44.0% | U 56.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.6

Hunter Greene

CIN vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.39

Strongest Gap Under +10.58%

Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

7.5

O +104 / U -133

Over gap -16.68% / Under gap +10.58%

Under +10.58%

BetMGM

7.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -15.28% / Under gap +7.66%

Under +7.66%

FanDuel

7.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap -12.71% / Under gap +6.72%

Under +6.72%

Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.1

Bryce Miller

SEA vs MIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.67

Strongest Gap Under +9.33%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -16.78% / Under gap +9.33%

Under +9.33%

DraftKings

5.5

O +108 / U -137

Over gap -14.86% / Under gap +8.97%

Under +8.97%

FanDuel

5.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -12.23% / Under gap +6.15%

Under +6.15%

Model O 33.2% | U 66.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.3

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.41

Strongest Gap Under +7.43%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -13.49% / Under gap +7.43%

Under +7.43%

DraftKings

5.5

O -137 / U +106

Over gap -13.32% / Under gap +6.97%

Under +6.97%

BetMGM

5.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -11.07% / Under gap +4.29%

Under +4.29%

Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.6

Bryce Elder

ATL vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.93

Strongest Gap Over +7.08%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap +7.08% / Under gap -14.07%

Over +7.08%

DraftKings

4.5

O +115 / U -149

Over gap +6.02% / Under gap -12.37%

Over +6.02%

FanDuel

4.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap +3.99% / Under gap -10.16%

Over +3.99%

Model O 52.5% | U 47.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.3

Nick Martinez

TB vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.94

Strongest Gap Under +6.20%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +109 / U -137

Over gap -11.86% / Under gap +6.20%

Under +6.20%

FanDuel

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -10.31% / Under gap +4.33%

Under +4.33%

BetMGM

3.5

O -175 / U +130

Over gap -10.19% / Under gap +3.07%

Under +3.07%

Model O 36.0% | U 64.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.3

Jeffrey Springs

ATH vs DET | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.62

Strongest Gap Over +4.47%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +4.47% / Under gap -12.09%

Over +4.47%

DraftKings

4.5

O +125 / U -156

Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -8.52%

Over +3.14%

FanDuel

4.5

O +124 / U -160

Over gap +2.94% / Under gap -9.12%

Over +2.94%

Model O 64.5% | U 35.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4

Will Warren

NYY vs CHC | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.80

Strongest Gap Under +4.06%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -11.05% / Under gap +4.06%

Under +4.06%

FanDuel

4.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -7.49% / Under gap +1.43%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -124 / U -103

Over gap -4.87% / Under gap -1.23%

No Play

Model O 50.5% | U 49.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.5

Michael Wacha

KC vs COL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap Over +3.20%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap +3.20% / Under gap -9.12%

Over +3.20%

FanDuel

4.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap +1.24% / Under gap -7.17%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -2.33% / Under gap -4.60%

No Play

Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.3

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL vs KC | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 3.35

Strongest Gap Under +2.73%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -8.66% / Under gap +2.73%

Under +2.73%

DraftKings

3.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -8.90% / Under gap +2.12%

Under +2.12%

BetMGM

3.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -5.30% / Under gap -2.32%

No Play

Model O 42.3% | U 57.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.8

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs AZ | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.90

Strongest Gap Over +2.07%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap +2.07% / Under gap -8.21%

Over +2.07%

BetMGM

4.5

O -110 / U -120

Over gap -0.31% / Under gap -6.62%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -239 / U --

Over gap -18.43% / Under gap --

No Play

Model O 52.1% | U 47.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.5

Zebby Matthews

MIN vs SEA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.92

Strongest Gap No Play +1.11%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -8.40% / Under gap +1.11%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -139 / U +107

Over gap -5.78% / Under gap -0.69%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -5.25% / Under gap -0.92%

No Play

Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6

Erick Fedde

CWS vs TB | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.54

Strongest Gap No Play +0.17%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +118 / U -151

Over gap +0.17% / Under gap -6.20%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -0.47% / Under gap -6.82%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -4.46% / Under gap -1.60%

No Play

Model O 46.0% | U 54.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.9

Hunter Brown

HOU vs TEX | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.42

Strongest Gap No Play -1.59%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -1.59% / Under gap -5.70%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -157 / U +123

Over gap -2.62% / Under gap -3.31%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -2.72%

No Play

Model O 44.9% | U 55.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.