Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-02 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-02

50 matched props 23 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-03 Older: 2026-08-01

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 50

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 23

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-02 | Raw sportsbook rows: 50 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-02/strikeout_edges_2026-08-02.json

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL vs LAA | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 6.19

Strongest Gap Under +32.16%

Best Line 9.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

9.5

O -105 / U -121

Over gap -38.13% / Under gap +32.16%

Under +32.16%

FanDuel

9.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -35.45% / Under gap +29.28%

Under +29.28%

Model O 13.1% | U 86.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.0

Cade Cavalli

WSH vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.31

Strongest Gap Under +31.53%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -167 / U +130

Over gap -37.56% / Under gap +31.53%

Under +31.53%

FanDuel

4.5

O -158 / U +124

Over gap -36.25% / Under gap +30.37%

Under +30.37%

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -32.86% / Under gap +25.57%

Under +25.57%

Model O 25.0% | U 75.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.8

Gavin Williams

CLE vs AZ | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.38

Strongest Gap Under +24.67%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -158 / U +124

Over gap -30.55% / Under gap +24.67%

Under +24.67%

DraftKings

6.5

O -174 / U +124

Over gap -32.81% / Under gap +24.67%

Under +24.67%

BetMGM

7.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -27.48% / Under gap +19.86%

Under +19.86%

Model O 30.7% | U 69.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.4

Taj Bradley

MIN vs SEA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.24

Strongest Gap Under +21.22%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -28.67% / Under gap +21.22%

Under +21.22%

DraftKings

6.5

O -114 / U -112

Over gap -24.49% / Under gap +18.39%

Under +18.39%

FanDuel

6.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -23.83% / Under gap +17.73%

Under +17.73%

Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.8

Kumar Rocker

TEX vs HOU | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.96

Strongest Gap Under +19.02%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -173 / U +124

Over gap -27.03% / Under gap +19.02%

Under +19.02%

FanDuel

4.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -24.29% / Under gap +18.21%

Under +18.21%

BetMGM

4.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -21.11% / Under gap +13.66%

Under +13.66%

Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.2

Zack Wheeler

PHI vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.90

Strongest Gap Under +12.50%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -19.61% / Under gap +12.50%

Under +12.50%

DraftKings

7.5

O -126 / U -101

Over gap -17.03% / Under gap +11.03%

Under +11.03%

FanDuel

7.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -13.89% / Under gap +7.79%

Under +7.79%

Model O 38.7% | U 61.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.6

Landen Roupp

SF vs SD | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 4.24

Strongest Gap Under +11.63%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -146 / U +112

Over gap -18.15% / Under gap +11.63%

Under +11.63%

FanDuel

4.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -16.78% / Under gap +10.72%

Under +10.72%

Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.0

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.46

Strongest Gap Under +11.47%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -163 / U +127

Over gap -17.50% / Under gap +11.47%

Under +11.47%

FanDuel

3.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -16.46% / Under gap +10.47%

Under +10.47%

BetMGM

4.5

O +140 / U -190

Over gap -14.10% / Under gap +6.91%

Under +6.91%

Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.7

Colin Rea

CHC vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.50

Strongest Gap Under +10.35%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -169 / U +127

Over gap -17.23% / Under gap +10.35%

Under +10.35%

FanDuel

5.5

O +134 / U -172

Over gap -12.14% / Under gap +6.16%

Under +6.16%

BetMGM

4.5

O -145 / U +105

Over gap -13.58% / Under gap +5.62%

Under +5.62%

Model O 45.6% | U 54.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.2

Emmet Sheehan

LAD vs BOS | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.22

Strongest Gap Under +10.04%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -136 / U +107

Over gap -15.98% / Under gap +10.04%

Under +10.04%

FanDuel

5.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -13.30% / Under gap +7.37%

Under +7.37%

Model O 41.6% | U 58.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6

Seth Lugo

KC vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.10

Strongest Gap Over +9.26%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap +9.26% / Under gap -15.13%

Over +9.26%

DraftKings

3.5

O -195 / U +130

Over gap +4.85% / Under gap -14.43%

Over +4.85%

BetMGM

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +1.64% / Under gap -8.62%

Over +1.64%

Model O 55.1% | U 44.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.9

Kyle Freeland

COL vs KC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.73

Strongest Gap Under +7.70%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +7.70%

Under +7.70%

FanDuel

4.5

O +130 / U -166

Over gap -11.18% / Under gap +5.29%

Under +5.29%

DraftKings

4.5

O +131 / U -168

Over gap -10.99% / Under gap +5.01%

Under +5.01%

Model O 32.3% | U 67.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.3

Mitch Keller

PIT vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.39

Strongest Gap Under +7.45%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +130 / U -175

Over gap -14.57% / Under gap +7.45%

Under +7.45%

DraftKings

4.5

O -133 / U +102

Over gap -13.33% / Under gap +6.75%

Under +6.75%

FanDuel

4.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -12.39% / Under gap +6.25%

Under +6.25%

Model O 28.9% | U 71.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.1

Merrill Kelly

AZ vs CLE | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.33

Strongest Gap Over +6.54%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +6.54% / Under gap -13.52%

Over +6.54%

FanDuel

3.5

O -130 / U +102

Over gap +3.51% / Under gap -9.53%

Over +3.51%

DraftKings

3.5

O -132 / U +103

Over gap +3.13% / Under gap -9.29%

Over +3.13%

Model O 60.0% | U 40.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.0

Sandy Alcantara

MIA vs NYM | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.86

Strongest Gap Under +1.83%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -149 / U +114

Over gap -8.40% / Under gap +1.83%

Under +1.83%

BetMGM

5.5

O +135 / U -185

Over gap -6.40% / Under gap -1.06%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -4.70% / Under gap -1.44%

No Play

Model O 51.4% | U 48.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.7

Kyle Bradish

BAL vs PHI | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 6.05

Strongest Gap Over +1.69%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -108 / U -118

Over gap +1.69% / Under gap -7.74%

Over +1.69%

DraftKings

5.5

O -110 / U -116

Over gap +1.23% / Under gap -7.31%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -0.94% / Under gap -5.99%

No Play

Model O 53.6% | U 46.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.7

Keider Montero

DET vs ATH | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 3.40

Strongest Gap No Play +0.55%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -6.69% / Under gap +0.55%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O +119 / U -150

Over gap -2.35% / Under gap -3.31%

No Play

Model O 43.3% | U 56.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.7

George Kirby

SEA vs MIN | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.74

Strongest Gap No Play -2.35%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap -3.75% / Under gap -2.35%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -4.19% / Under gap -2.79%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -114 / U -116

Over gap -3.97% / Under gap -3.00%

No Play

Model O 49.3% | U 50.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.