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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-12 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-12
139 matched props 52 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-13 Older: 2026-08-11

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 139
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 52
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-12 | Raw sportsbook rows: 139 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-12/strikeout_edges_2026-08-12.json
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.50
Strongest Gap Under +17.02%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -23.95% / Under gap +17.02%
Under +17.02%
DraftKings
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -22.01% / Under gap +15.91%
Under +15.91%
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -22.01% / Under gap +15.91%
Under +15.91%
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -22.01% / Under gap +15.91%
Under +15.91%
FanDuel
7.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -10.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -16.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -17.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -700 / U --
Over gap -24.82% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -27.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.6% | U 69.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.2
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs ATH | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap Under +16.09%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -22.04% / Under gap +16.09%
Under +16.09%
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -17.90% / Under gap +12.01%
Under +12.01%
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -17.90% / Under gap +12.01%
Under +12.01%
FanDuel
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -5.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -11.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -19.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -24.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -24.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.6% | U 74.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.8
Carmen Mlodzinski headshot

Carmen Mlodzinski
PIT vs MIA | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.02
Strongest Gap Under +14.62%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -129 / U +101
Over gap -20.70% / Under gap +14.62%
Under +14.62%
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -17.42% / Under gap +11.32%
Under +11.32%
FanDuel
3.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -17.42% / Under gap +11.32%
Under +11.32%
BetMGM
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -15.59% / Under gap +8.81%
Under +8.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -8.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap -14.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -20.55% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.6% | U 64.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.1
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs STL | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 6.76
Strongest Gap Over +12.10%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +12.10% / Under gap --
Over +12.10%
FanDuel
7.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +11.97% / Under gap --
Over +11.97%
FanDuel
6.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap +9.36% / Under gap --
Over +9.36%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +6.11% / Under gap -12.13%
Over +6.11%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap +6.11% / Under gap -12.13%
Over +6.11%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +2.63% / Under gap -10.25%
Over +2.63%
DraftKings
5.5
O -153 / U +120
Over gap +2.16% / Under gap -8.08%
Over +2.16%
FanDuel
4.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -1.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -4.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -4.36% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.4% | U 73.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.2
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs CLE | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.37
Strongest Gap Over +11.33%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +11.33% / Under gap --
Over +11.33%
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap +10.57% / Under gap --
Over +10.57%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +10.28% / Under gap -17.39%
Over +10.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap +8.56% / Under gap -14.62%
Over +8.56%
FanDuel
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap +8.56% / Under gap -14.62%
Over +8.56%
DraftKings
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +7.14% / Under gap -13.19%
Over +7.14%
FanDuel
3.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap +1.92% / Under gap --
Over +1.92%
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -1.04% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 30.6% | U 69.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.2
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs PIT | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +11.21%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +117 / U -150
Over gap -17.29% / Under gap +11.21%
Under +11.21%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -15.46% / Under gap +9.38%
Under +9.38%
FanDuel
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -15.46% / Under gap +9.38%
Under +9.38%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -15.70% / Under gap +8.71%
Under +8.71%
FanDuel
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -6.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -11.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -20.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -22.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.6
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
MIL vs SD | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.05
Strongest Gap Under +10.17%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -16.22% / Under gap +10.17%
Under +10.17%
FanDuel
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap -7.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -12.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -15.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -20.23% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.9% | U 62.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.5
Tyler Mahle headshot

Tyler Mahle
ATL vs NYM | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.33
Strongest Gap Under +9.59%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -15.48% / Under gap +9.59%
Under +9.59%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -6.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -11.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -17.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -22.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -194 / U --
Over gap -23.25% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.0% | U 72.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.6
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.13
Strongest Gap Under +9.51%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -15.61% / Under gap +9.51%
Under +9.51%
DraftKings
3.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap -13.34% / Under gap +7.17%
Under +7.17%
BetMGM
3.5
O +105 / U -145
Over gap -10.90% / Under gap +2.94%
Under +2.94%
Model O 37.9% | U 62.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.4
Robbie Ray headshot

Robbie Ray
SD vs MIL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.51
Strongest Gap Over +7.93%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +7.93% / Under gap --
Over +7.93%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +7.48% / Under gap --
Over +7.48%
FanDuel
5.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap +3.60% / Under gap --
Over +3.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +2.32% / Under gap -8.17%
Over +2.32%
FanDuel
3.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -2.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -3.19% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.6% | U 78.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.7
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs SEA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.21
Strongest Gap Over +6.48%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +6.48% / Under gap --
Over +6.48%
FanDuel
6.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +5.64% / Under gap --
Over +5.64%
FanDuel
5.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap +2.73% / Under gap --
Over +2.73%
DraftKings
4.5
O -126 / U -101
Over gap +1.01% / Under gap -7.01%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -0.14% / Under gap -5.78%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -0.14% / Under gap -5.78%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -2.42% / Under gap -5.54%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -5.49% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -6.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.2% | U 81.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.0
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs WSH | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.63
Strongest Gap Over +4.58%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +4.58% / Under gap --
Over +4.58%
FanDuel
5.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +3.19% / Under gap --
Over +3.19%
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap +1.45% / Under gap -7.43%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap +1.45% / Under gap -7.43%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +112 / U -143
Over gap +0.58% / Under gap -6.60%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -4.63% / Under gap -2.30%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -5.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -670 / U --
Over gap -6.58% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.7% | U 79.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.8
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs COL | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.93
Strongest Gap Over +3.50%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +3.50% / Under gap --
Over +3.50%
DraftKings
4.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -8.41% / Under gap +2.42%
Under +2.42%
FanDuel
6.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +1.87% / Under gap --
Over +1.87%
FanDuel
5.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap -0.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -3.99% / Under gap -2.03%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -3.99% / Under gap -2.03%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -3.99% / Under gap -3.75%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -8.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -9.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.3% | U 84.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.8
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs MIN | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.93
Strongest Gap Over +3.50%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +3.50% / Under gap --
Over +3.50%
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +2.38% / Under gap --
Over +2.38%
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -0.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -3.61% / Under gap -2.53%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -3.61% / Under gap -2.53%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap -2.53%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -3.03% / Under gap -3.03%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -7.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -8.49% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 15.3% | U 84.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.9
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs AZ | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.54
Strongest Gap Over +2.90%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +2.90% / Under gap --
Over +2.90%
FanDuel
4.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap +2.65% / Under gap --
Over +2.65%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +2.18% / Under gap -8.16%
Over +2.18%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +2.18% / Under gap -8.16%
Over +2.18%
DraftKings
3.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap +0.79% / Under gap -6.82%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -1.58% / Under gap -6.04%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.6% | U 83.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.0
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
CWS vs CIN | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 5.58
Strongest Gap Over +2.51%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +2.51% / Under gap --
Over +2.51%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -6.50% / Under gap +0.40%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -0.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -3.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -9.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -12.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -12.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 14.3% | U 85.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.4
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs TOR | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 4.47
Strongest Gap No Play +1.47%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +1.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -0.16% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -6.12% / Under gap -0.66%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +102 / U -131
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap -1.81%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap -3.08%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -2.98% / Under gap -3.08%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -9.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -250 / U --
Over gap -9.21% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.7% | U 81.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.6
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs BAL | 9 books
No Play
Adj K 5.12
Strongest Gap No Play +1.13%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +1.13% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -6.17% / Under gap +0.19%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -7.49% / Under gap -0.13%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -1.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -3.35% / Under gap -2.54%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +130 / U -166
Over gap -3.35% / Under gap -2.54%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -9.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -184 / U --
Over gap -9.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -10.28% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.3% | U 82.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.7
Eric Lauer headshot

Eric Lauer
LAD vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.14
Strongest Gap No Play -1.30%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -4.78% / Under gap -1.30%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +131 / U -167
Over gap -3.82% / Under gap -2.02%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -2.27% / Under gap -5.69%
No Play
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.5

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.