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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-11 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-11
122 matched props 64 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-12 Older: 2026-08-10

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 122
Grouped Pitchers 21
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 64
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-11 | Raw sportsbook rows: 122 | Grouped pitcher entries: 21 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-11/strikeout_edges_2026-08-11.json
Sean Burke headshot

Sean Burke
CWS vs CIN | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.39
Strongest Gap Under +37.82%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -170 / U +125
Over gap -45.22% / Under gap +37.82%
Under +37.82%
FanDuel
6.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -43.50% / Under gap +37.62%
Under +37.62%
FanDuel
6.5
O -172 / U +124
Over gap -45.50% / Under gap +37.62%
Under +37.62%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -37.45% / Under gap +29.83%
Under +29.83%
FanDuel
8.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -23.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -32.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -36.58% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -47.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -50.68% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.7% | U 82.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.0
Eury Pérez headshot

Eury Pérez
MIA vs PIT | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.91
Strongest Gap Under +20.10%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -26.88% / Under gap +20.10%
Under +20.10%
DraftKings
6.5
O -102 / U -127
Over gap -26.16% / Under gap +19.71%
Under +19.71%
FanDuel
6.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -25.66% / Under gap +19.52%
Under +19.52%
Model O 24.3% | U 75.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.2
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.85
Strongest Gap Under +16.95%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -22.98% / Under gap +16.95%
Under +16.95%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -23.60% / Under gap +16.31%
Under +16.31%
FanDuel
6.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +16.09%
Under +16.09%
FanDuel
6.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +16.09%
Under +16.09%
FanDuel
8.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -10.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -17.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -18.16% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -24.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -26.93% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.2% | U 62.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.4
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs BOS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 6.79
Strongest Gap Under +16.35%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -159 / U +116
Over gap -24.04% / Under gap +16.35%
Under +16.35%
BetMGM
7.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -23.43% / Under gap +16.14%
Under +16.14%
FanDuel
7.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -19.55% / Under gap +13.63%
Under +13.63%
FanDuel
7.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -19.55% / Under gap +13.63%
Under +13.63%
FanDuel
8.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -15.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -3000 / U --
Over gap -21.10% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -25.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -25.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.9
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +15.65%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -21.71% / Under gap +15.65%
Under +15.65%
FanDuel
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -20.71% / Under gap +14.69%
Under +14.69%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -16.66% / Under gap +9.67%
Under +9.67%
Model O 28.8% | U 71.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.0
Ryan Weathers headshot

Ryan Weathers
NYY vs SEA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.04
Strongest Gap Under +14.09%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +117 / U -149
Over gap -20.01% / Under gap +14.09%
Under +14.09%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -19.38% / Under gap +13.30%
Under +13.30%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -19.38% / Under gap +13.30%
Under +13.30%
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -20.44% / Under gap +13.15%
Under +13.15%
FanDuel
8.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -7.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -13.44% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1450 / U --
Over gap -23.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -28.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -28.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.1% | U 73.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.0
Bryan Woo headshot

Bryan Woo
SEA vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.30
Strongest Gap Under +12.07%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -19.18% / Under gap +12.07%
Under +12.07%
DraftKings
6.5
O +116 / U -152
Over gap -16.70% / Under gap +10.08%
Under +10.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +9.77%
Under +9.77%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +9.77%
Under +9.77%
FanDuel
8.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap -5.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap -10.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -20.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -196 / U --
Over gap -23.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -24.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.6% | U 70.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.8
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs SD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.62
Strongest Gap Under +10.10%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -17.55% / Under gap +10.10%
Under +10.10%
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -14.28% / Under gap +8.37%
Under +8.37%
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -14.28% / Under gap +8.20%
Under +8.20%
Model O 32.5% | U 67.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.9
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs MIN | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.56
Strongest Gap Under +9.44%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +9.44%
Under +9.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +9.44%
Under +9.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -15.32% / Under gap +9.44%
Under +9.44%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -13.58% / Under gap +5.96%
Under +5.96%
FanDuel
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -6.21% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -11.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -20.47% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -22.33% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.3% | U 70.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.0
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.87
Strongest Gap Over +8.72%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap +8.72% / Under gap -15.84%
Over +8.72%
FanDuel
3.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap +6.33% / Under gap -12.20%
Over +6.33%
DraftKings
3.5
O +110 / U -144
Over gap +4.58% / Under gap -11.22%
Over +4.58%
Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.8
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.60
Strongest Gap Under +8.56%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -161 / U +126
Over gap -14.50% / Under gap +8.56%
Under +8.56%
FanDuel
3.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -14.35% / Under gap +8.17%
Under +8.17%
BetMGM
3.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -11.99% / Under gap +4.03%
Under +4.03%
Model O 47.2% | U 52.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 16.1
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs WSH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.94
Strongest Gap Under +7.67%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -102 / U -122
Over gap -13.12% / Under gap +7.67%
Under +7.67%
BetMGM
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -13.84% / Under gap +7.06%
Under +7.06%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -12.12% / Under gap +6.10%
Under +6.10%
FanDuel
5.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -12.12% / Under gap +6.10%
Under +6.10%
FanDuel
7.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -3.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -8.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -12.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -235 / U --
Over gap -17.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -17.76% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.4% | U 62.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.1
Nick Lodolo headshot

Nick Lodolo
CIN vs CWS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap Over +7.38%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +7.38% / Under gap --
Over +7.38%
FanDuel
5.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +5.04% / Under gap --
Over +5.04%
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +2.22% / Under gap -8.32%
Over +2.22%
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +2.22% / Under gap -8.32%
Over +2.22%
DraftKings
4.5
O -122 / U -105
Over gap -0.12% / Under gap -6.05%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -1.69% / Under gap -6.05%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -3.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -5.44% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.6% | U 73.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.1
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs BAL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.76
Strongest Gap Over +5.70%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap --
Over +5.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +235 / U --
Over gap +4.76% / Under gap --
Over +4.76%
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +4.40% / Under gap -11.39%
Over +4.40%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +3.12% / Under gap -9.20%
Over +3.12%
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +3.12% / Under gap -9.20%
Over +3.12%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -124
Over gap -1.37% / Under gap -5.21%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -6.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.4% | U 77.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.8
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs DET | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap Over +5.40%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +5.40% / Under gap --
Over +5.40%
FanDuel
5.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +3.66% / Under gap --
Over +3.66%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -121
Over gap +2.24% / Under gap -8.21%
Over +2.24%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +2.24% / Under gap -9.02%
Over +2.24%
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +0.85% / Under gap -6.95%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +0.85% / Under gap -6.95%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -5.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -6.68% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.4% | U 74.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.7
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs PHI | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 3.61
Strongest Gap Over +2.39%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +2.39% / Under gap --
Over +2.39%
FanDuel
4.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap +1.62% / Under gap --
Over +1.62%
FanDuel
3.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +0.21% / Under gap -6.06%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap +0.21% / Under gap -6.06%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +106 / U -137
Over gap -1.16% / Under gap -5.19%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -2.62% / Under gap -4.83%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -280 / U --
Over gap -6.65% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.5% | U 82.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.6
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs STL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 6.01
Strongest Gap Under +1.88%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -157 / U +122
Over gap -8.02% / Under gap +1.88%
Under +1.88%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -6.28% / Under gap +0.20%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -1.48% / Under gap -5.45%
No Play
Model O 53.1% | U 46.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.1
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs SF | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.08
Strongest Gap No Play -0.53%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -0.53% / Under gap -5.48%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -5.98% / Under gap -1.64%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -128 / U +103
Over gap -2.12% / Under gap -3.28%
No Play
Model O 54.0% | U 46.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 71.4
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.01
Strongest Gap No Play -0.53%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -0.53% / Under gap -5.49%
No Play
DraftKings
2.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -4.64% / Under gap -1.44%
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -2.34% / Under gap -4.77%
No Play
Model O 56.0% | U 44.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 16.5
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.50
Strongest Gap No Play -1.35%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -102 / U -126
Over gap -4.90% / Under gap -1.35%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -3.42% / Under gap -2.50%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -4.40% / Under gap -3.05%
No Play
Model O 45.6% | U 54.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.6
Blake Snell headshot

Blake Snell
LAD vs KC | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.15
Strongest Gap No Play -2.06%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -5.23% / Under gap -2.06%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -3.36% / Under gap -2.82%
No Play
DraftKings
6.5
O +126 / U -161
Over gap -2.97% / Under gap -2.97%
No Play
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.