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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-13 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-13
86 matched props 45 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-14 Older: 2026-08-12

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 86
Grouped Pitchers 11
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 45
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-13 | Raw sportsbook rows: 86 | Grouped pitcher entries: 11 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-13/strikeout_edges_2026-08-13.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs CHC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.71
Strongest Gap Under +22.41%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -28.26% / Under gap +22.41%
Under +22.41%
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -142
Over gap -28.26% / Under gap +22.41%
Under +22.41%
BetMGM
5.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -28.71% / Under gap +21.09%
Under +21.09%
DraftKings
5.5
O +121 / U -157
Over gap -26.34% / Under gap +20.00%
Under +20.00%
FanDuel
7.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -12.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -20.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -27.02% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -34.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -220 / U --
Over gap -36.80% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.9% | U 81.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.4
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs CWS | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 3.99
Strongest Gap Under +16.63%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -23.92% / Under gap +16.63%
Under +16.63%
DraftKings
4.5
O -136 / U +107
Over gap -20.77% / Under gap +14.83%
Under +14.83%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -20.77% / Under gap +14.60%
Under +14.60%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -20.77% / Under gap +14.60%
Under +14.60%
FanDuel
7.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap -4.70% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap -10.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap -16.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -19.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -24.39% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.9
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.81
Strongest Gap Under +15.76%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -23.38% / Under gap +15.76%
Under +15.76%
DraftKings
6.5
O -132 / U +102
Over gap -20.28% / Under gap +13.88%
Under +13.88%
FanDuel
6.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -18.33% / Under gap +12.40%
Under +12.40%
Model O 36.6% | U 63.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.5
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 6.30
Strongest Gap Under +11.44%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -153 / U +121
Over gap -17.16% / Under gap +11.44%
Under +11.44%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -17.47% / Under gap +10.18%
Under +10.18%
FanDuel
6.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -16.04% / Under gap +9.96%
Under +9.96%
FanDuel
6.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -16.04% / Under gap +9.96%
Under +9.96%
FanDuel
8.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -6.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -11.53% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -14.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -18.76% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -20.84% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.3% | U 56.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.8
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs PHI | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.52
Strongest Gap Under +6.94%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -141 / U +113
Over gap -12.40% / Under gap +6.94%
Under +6.94%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -10.41% / Under gap +4.39%
Under +4.39%
FanDuel
5.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -10.41% / Under gap +4.39%
Under +4.39%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -8.44% / Under gap +1.51%
Under +1.51%
FanDuel
8.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +0.03% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap -2.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +150 / U --
Over gap -7.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -10.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -900 / U --
Over gap -14.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -15.60% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.1% | U 53.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.7
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
CHC vs WSH | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.40
Strongest Gap Over +6.08%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +6.08% / Under gap --
Over +6.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +5.00% / Under gap --
Over +5.00%
FanDuel
5.5
O +140 / U --
Over gap +2.67% / Under gap --
Over +2.67%
FanDuel
4.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap -0.52% / Under gap -5.35%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -6.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -7.15% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.4% | U 79.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.7
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs CIN | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.49
Strongest Gap Under +5.79%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -12.90% / Under gap +5.79%
Under +5.79%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -10.71% / Under gap +4.57%
Under +4.57%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -10.71% / Under gap +4.57%
Under +4.57%
DraftKings
4.5
O -122 / U -103
Over gap -9.52% / Under gap +3.83%
Under +3.83%
FanDuel
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -2.78% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +168 / U --
Over gap -6.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -12.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -14.74% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.4% | U 54.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.5
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs CLE | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 3.48
Strongest Gap Over +5.70%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +5.70% / Under gap --
Over +5.70%
FanDuel
3.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +5.50% / Under gap --
Over +5.50%
FanDuel
2.5
O -180 / U +140
Over gap +0.56% / Under gap -6.52%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -180 / U +140
Over gap +0.56% / Under gap -6.52%
No Play
BetMGM
2.5
O -185 / U +135
Over gap -0.06% / Under gap -7.40%
No Play
DraftKings
2.5
O -193 / U +140
Over gap -1.02% / Under gap -6.52%
No Play
Model O 27.9% | U 72.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.9
Aaron Nola headshot

Aaron Nola
PHI vs MIN | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.38
Strongest Gap Over +3.47%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap +3.47% / Under gap --
Over +3.47%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +1.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -0.20% / Under gap -5.88%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -0.20% / Under gap -5.88%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -2.46% / Under gap -4.83%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +112 / U -148
Over gap -3.12% / Under gap -3.73%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -192 / U --
Over gap -6.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -7.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -9.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.1% | U 79.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.0
Max Fried headshot

Max Fried
NYY vs SEA | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.81
Strongest Gap Under +2.98%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -9.06% / Under gap +2.98%
Under +2.98%
FanDuel
5.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -9.06% / Under gap +2.98%
Under +2.98%
DraftKings
5.5
O -144 / U +112
Over gap -8.73% / Under gap +2.54%
Under +2.54%
FanDuel
8.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap +1.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -1.14% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -4.26% / Under gap -2.67%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +136 / U --
Over gap -5.75% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -12.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -370 / U --
Over gap -13.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 50.3% | U 49.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.3
Max Scherzer headshot

Max Scherzer
TOR vs BOS | 8 books
No Play
Adj K 4.10
Strongest Gap No Play -0.32%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -6.67% / Under gap -0.32%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -0.78% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +131 / U -166
Over gap -4.51% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -166
Over gap -5.08% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -166
Over gap -5.08% / Under gap -1.19%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +265 / U --
Over gap -2.86% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -11.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -11.51% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.8% | U 61.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.