Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-24 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-24
36 matched props 14 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-25 Older: 2026-08-23

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 36
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 14
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-24 | Raw sportsbook rows: 36 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-24/strikeout_edges_2026-08-24.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.85
Strongest Gap Under +32.73%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -39.51% / Under gap +32.73%
Under +32.73%
FanDuel
6.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -37.31% / Under gap +31.39%
Under +31.39%
DraftKings
6.5
O +104 / U -133
Over gap -37.31% / Under gap +31.21%
Under +31.21%
Model O 11.7% | U 88.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.5
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.08
Strongest Gap Under +17.32%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -159 / U +126
Over gap -22.96% / Under gap +17.32%
Under +17.32%
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -20.92% / Under gap +14.84%
Under +14.84%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -20.20% / Under gap +13.50%
Under +13.50%
Model O 38.4% | U 61.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.61
Strongest Gap Over +14.32%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +14.32% / Under gap -21.77%
Over +14.32%
DraftKings
3.5
O -107 / U -120
Over gap +12.63% / Under gap -18.87%
Over +12.63%
FanDuel
3.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +11.71% / Under gap -17.81%
Over +11.71%
Model O 64.3% | U 35.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7
Kumar Rocker headshot

Kumar Rocker
TEX vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.05
Strongest Gap Under +14.24%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -143 / U +109
Over gap -20.94% / Under gap +14.24%
Under +14.24%
BetMGM
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -20.42% / Under gap +13.31%
Under +13.31%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -18.99% / Under gap +13.07%
Under +13.07%
Model O 37.9% | U 62.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.4
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.30
Strongest Gap Over +13.42%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap +13.42% / Under gap -19.30%
Over +13.42%
DraftKings
4.5
O +120 / U -151
Over gap +12.61% / Under gap -18.22%
Over +12.61%
BetMGM
3.5
O -185 / U +135
Over gap +8.43% / Under gap -15.89%
Over +8.43%
Model O 58.1% | U 41.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.6
Zebby Matthews headshot

Zebby Matthews
MIN vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap Over +6.15%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +6.15% / Under gap -13.77%
Over +6.15%
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +5.69% / Under gap -11.75%
Over +5.69%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -124
Over gap +2.55% / Under gap -9.13%
Over +2.55%
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.1
Ranger Suarez headshot

Ranger Suarez
BOS vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.66
Strongest Gap Under +5.70%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -11.58% / Under gap +5.70%
Under +5.70%
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -11.19% / Under gap +5.11%
Under +5.11%
BetMGM
5.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap -11.38% / Under gap +4.68%
Under +4.68%
Model O 33.1% | U 66.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.8
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.68
Strongest Gap Under +5.22%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -151 / U +117
Over gap -11.46% / Under gap +5.22%
Under +5.22%
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -9.63% / Under gap +3.68%
Under +3.68%
BetMGM
3.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -5.85% / Under gap -1.08%
No Play
Model O 48.7% | U 51.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.7
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs CHC | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.61
Strongest Gap Over +3.38%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap +3.38% / Under gap -9.37%
Over +3.38%
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap +2.98% / Under gap -9.68%
Over +2.98%
DraftKings
3.5
O -161 / U +124
Over gap +2.63% / Under gap -8.96%
Over +2.63%
Model O 64.3% | U 35.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.6
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs SEA | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 6.90
Strongest Gap Under +1.93%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -8.01% / Under gap +1.93%
Under +1.93%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -8.90% / Under gap +1.28%
No Play
DraftKings
7.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -6.94% / Under gap +0.96%
No Play
Model O 38.7% | U 61.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.9
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs BOS | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.16
Strongest Gap Over +1.89%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -118 / U -115
Over gap +1.89% / Under gap -9.51%
Over +1.89%
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap +1.47% / Under gap -7.48%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -121 / U -103
Over gap +1.27% / Under gap -6.76%
No Play
Model O 56.0% | U 44.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.0
Logan Gilbert headshot

Logan Gilbert
SEA vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 6.55
Strongest Gap No Play -0.84%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -0.84% / Under gap -5.15%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O -156 / U +120
Over gap -0.84% / Under gap -5.55%
No Play
BetMGM
6.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -3.37% / Under gap -4.08%
No Play
Model O 60.1% | U 39.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.