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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-23 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-23
39 matched props 15 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-24 Older: 2026-08-22

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 39
Grouped Pitchers 15
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 15
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-23 | Raw sportsbook rows: 39 | Grouped pitcher entries: 15 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-23/strikeout_edges_2026-08-23.json
Blake Snell headshot

Blake Snell
LAD vs PIT | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 6.52
Strongest Gap Under +23.64%
Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
8.5
O -113 / U -111
Over gap -29.30% / Under gap +23.64%
Under +23.64%
FanDuel
8.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -28.86% / Under gap +22.76%
Under +22.76%
Model O 23.8% | U 76.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.5
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs CLE | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.40
Strongest Gap Over +13.95%
Best Line 2.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
2.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap +13.95% / Under gap -19.97%
Over +13.95%
DraftKings
2.5
O -109 / U -117
Over gap +11.30% / Under gap -17.37%
Over +11.30%
BetMGM
2.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +8.90% / Under gap -15.83%
Over +8.90%
Model O 63.4% | U 36.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.9
Cristian Javier headshot

Cristian Javier
HOU vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.81
Strongest Gap Under +12.80%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -19.78% / Under gap +12.80%
Under +12.80%
FanDuel
4.5
O +112 / U -130
Over gap -13.46% / Under gap +9.77%
Under +9.77%
DraftKings
4.5
O +103 / U -130
Over gap -15.55% / Under gap +9.77%
Under +9.77%
Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.0
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.27
Strongest Gap Under +11.01%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -151 / U +117
Over gap -17.25% / Under gap +11.01%
Under +11.01%
FanDuel
6.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap -15.42% / Under gap +9.47%
Under +9.47%
BetMGM
6.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -14.54% / Under gap +7.09%
Under +7.09%
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.0
Shota Imanaga headshot

Shota Imanaga
CHC vs SEA | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap Under +9.26%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -121 / U -105
Over gap -15.23% / Under gap +9.26%
Under +9.26%
FanDuel
5.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -13.97% / Under gap +7.87%
Under +7.87%
Model O 39.5% | U 60.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.3
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs SD | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.36
Strongest Gap Over +9.05%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -106 / U -120
Over gap +9.05% / Under gap -15.06%
Over +9.05%
DraftKings
3.5
O -114 / U -115
Over gap +7.24% / Under gap -14.00%
Over +7.24%
Model O 60.5% | U 39.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.3
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs CHC | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.54
Strongest Gap Under +8.48%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -154 / U +121
Over gap -14.36% / Under gap +8.48%
Under +8.48%
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -14.36% / Under gap +8.28%
Under +8.28%
Model O 46.3% | U 53.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.7
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs AZ | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.80
Strongest Gap Over +6.68%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +6.68% / Under gap -12.76%
Over +6.68%
DraftKings
3.5
O +107 / U -137
Over gap +2.62% / Under gap -8.74%
Over +2.62%
Model O 50.9% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.9
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.53
Strongest Gap Under +6.54%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -14.16% / Under gap +6.54%
Under +6.54%
DraftKings
3.5
O -137 / U +108
Over gap -11.97% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
FanDuel
3.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -9.72% / Under gap +3.66%
Under +3.66%
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.7
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs TB | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap Over +5.69%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +108 / U -136
Over gap +5.69% / Under gap -11.40%
Over +5.69%
DraftKings
4.5
O +100 / U -126
Over gap +3.77% / Under gap -9.52%
Over +3.77%
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap +0.28% / Under gap -7.26%
No Play
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0
Carlos Rodón headshot

Carlos Rodón
NYY vs TOR | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.79
Strongest Gap Over +4.96%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +4.96% / Under gap -10.95%
Over +4.96%
DraftKings
5.5
O +113 / U -148
Over gap +3.06% / Under gap -9.69%
Over +3.06%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +1.23% / Under gap -8.34%
No Play
Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.6
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs MIN | 2 books
Play
Adj K 3.69
Strongest Gap Under +3.72%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -9.79% / Under gap +3.72%
Under +3.72%
FanDuel
3.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -7.25% / Under gap +1.11%
No Play
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.5
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs WSH | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.39
Strongest Gap Under +2.34%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -9.27% / Under gap +2.34%
Under +2.34%
DraftKings
3.5
O +111 / U -139
Over gap -4.28% / Under gap -1.27%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -3.19% / Under gap -2.79%
No Play
Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.9
Yusei Kikuchi headshot

Yusei Kikuchi
LAA vs TEX | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.01
Strongest Gap Over +1.85%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap +1.85% / Under gap -7.90%
Over +1.85%
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -7.01% / Under gap -0.28%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -2.75% / Under gap -3.27%
No Play
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.9
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs BAL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.85
Strongest Gap No Play +0.08%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -136 / U +108
Over gap -5.79% / Under gap +0.08%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -6.49% / Under gap -0.62%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -3.11% / Under gap -2.82%
No Play
Model O 51.8% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.