Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs STL | 6.55 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 6.46 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 5.94 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CLE | 5.58 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIA | 5.00 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TOR | 4.99 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs KC | 4.73 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 4.58 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 4.47 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs LAD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SF | 3.93 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 3.87 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 3.80 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 3.69 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs PIT | 3.47 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 3.23 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.