Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SEA | 5.96 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 5.94 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.92 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs HOU | 5.92 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAA | 5.85 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs DET | 5.75 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.53 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.73 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Matt Wilkinson
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs ATH | 4.67 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Yunior Marte
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 4.36 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Alec Gamboa
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bennett Sousa
Probable starter
|
HOU vs NYM | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TOR | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Zach Agnos
Probable starter
|
COL vs ATL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BAL | 4.25 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 4.17 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 3.99 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs PHI | 3.94 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs SD | 3.86 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TEX | 3.86 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 3.65 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.58 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 3.55 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 3.50 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAD | 3.50 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs COL | 3.50 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 3.44 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 3.28 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs TB | 3.11 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIL | 2.85 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.