Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs LAD | 6.54 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs NYM | 6.06 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs ATL | 5.51 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
TOR vs KC | 5.21 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIL | 5.11 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs HOU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.65 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs STL | 4.35 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs COL | 4.30 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs WSH | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jose Cabrera
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gordon Graceffo
Probable starter
|
STL vs BAL | 4.20 | 21.9% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs NYY | 4.14 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs TOR | 4.02 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.