Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAA | 6.40 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TOR | 6.14 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs DET | 5.89 | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 5.88 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs TB | 5.21 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs PHI | 5.15 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.13 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 5.07 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAD | 4.98 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 4.77 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 4.76 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BAL | 4.70 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 4.62 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs COL | 4.41 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs SD | 4.29 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Ethan Pecko
Probable starter
|
HOU vs NYM | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mason Adams
Probable starter
|
COL vs ATL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.27 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TEX | 4.22 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs HOU | 4.11 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 4.04 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Jordan Hicks
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 3.90 | 21.1% | 21.1% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 0 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIL | 3.85 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.85 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SEA | 3.68 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs ATH | 3.41 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 3.20 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.