Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SEA | 6.95 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs DET | 6.17 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs NYM | 6.08 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 6.00 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 7 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs PHI | 5.49 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 5 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 4.99 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TEX | 4.85 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs TB | 4.78 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs COL | 4.72 | 21.5% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 5 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 4.62 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAD | 4.61 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs BAL | 4.60 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 4.58 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 4.45 | 23.8% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs HOU | 4.32 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.29 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Kohl Drake
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs SD | 4.18 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TOR | 4.17 | 22.5% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 6 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIL | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.06 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAA | 3.90 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Blade Tidwell
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 3.85 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 3.75 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs ATH | 3.31 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs ATL | 3.04 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.