Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 5.60 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYM | 5.46 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 5.40 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BOS | 5.28 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SF | 5.26 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs AZ | 4.94 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 4.76 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs CIN | 4.72 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs NYY | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Will Dion
Probable starter
|
WSH vs MIA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PHI | 4.48 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Povich
Probable starter
|
BAL vs COL | 4.41 | 21.9% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 1 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SD | 4.33 | 19.0% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Elmer Rodríguez
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Robert Stock
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TB | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs WSH | 4.24 | 22.6% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 4.10 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 4.08 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SEA | 4.07 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs BAL | 4.00 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 3.53 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Anthony Molina
Probable starter
|
SF vs ATL | 3.36 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.