Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CLE | 6.57 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 6.06 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs STL | 5.89 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 5.62 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 7 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TOR | 5.56 | 27.2% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs NYY | 5.49 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 5 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SF | 4.83 | 23.8% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs CIN | 4.78 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 4.74 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Taylor Clarke
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PHI | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 4.54 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 4.52 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SEA | 4.44 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIA | 4.40 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs COL | 4.35 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 4.34 | 21.5% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 5 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs KC | 4.29 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs PIT | 4.27 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 4.23 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.22 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BOS | 4.06 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Justin Hagenman
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TB | 4.01 | 22.5% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 4.00 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs AZ | 3.90 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Brandon Williamson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SD | 3.70 | 18.2% | 15.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs BAL | 3.42 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Brad Lord
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.38 | 19.5% | 18.4% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 1 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYM | 3.34 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.