Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 6.25 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 5 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs AZ | 6.13 | 27.6% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYM | 5.93 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TOR | 5.93 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs SF | 5.72 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs PIT | 5.45 | 23.0% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 6 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs COL | 5.39 | 25.1% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 5 |
Ronel Blanco
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CWS | 5.23 | 23.3% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SD | 5.19 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 4.99 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs BOS | 4.74 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TB | 4.73 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs NYY | 4.70 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Morris
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs BAL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jedixson Paez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs SEA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs MIA | 4.56 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 4.48 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs PHI | 4.47 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 4.30 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Miles
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CLE | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs STL | 4.28 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 4.01 | 21.9% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 3.95 | 22.0% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs HOU | 3.69 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 3.41 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Basso
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 3.36 | 20.9% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs KC | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs CIN | 3.11 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs LAD | 2.87 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 6 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.