Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs CIN | 6.55 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 6.44 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs COL | 6.00 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 7 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATH | 5.58 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs ATL | 5.55 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs WSH | 5.17 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 5.11 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 5 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 5.11 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs AZ | 5.00 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Corbin Burnes
Probable starter
|
AZ vs KC | 4.93 | 23.0% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAD | 4.81 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 4.73 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs STL | 4.65 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 4.61 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BAL | 4.60 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAA | 4.44 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs DET | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Aj Smith-Shawver
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TB | 4.39 | 21.9% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs NYY | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs SF | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Riley Cornelio
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs HOU | 4.28 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TOR | 4.25 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CWS | 4.15 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs PHI | 4.14 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs PIT | 4.07 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CLE | 3.69 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.