Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 6.52 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 6.23 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 6.16 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs WSH | 6.13 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 5.92 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SD | 5.14 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 5.05 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIA | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAA | 4.83 | 23.8% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 4.69 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Sears
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jackson Kent
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kade Morris
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Matt Wilkinson
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jameson Taillon
Probable starter
|
TOR vs KC | 4.27 | 21.1% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.27 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Allen
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.20 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 0 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.17 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 4.14 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs HOU | 3.99 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Trevor Williams
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 3.98 | 19.8% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs TOR | 3.88 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs STL | 3.82 | 19.0% | 17.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 3.66 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CHC | 3.58 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs PIT | 3.56 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYY | 3.49 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 3.48 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 3.48 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs AZ | 3.45 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 3.12 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs COL | 2.90 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.