Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 6.79 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs WSH | 6.27 | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 5.66 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 5.60 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYY | 5.60 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SD | 5.54 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs TOR | 5.14 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 5.02 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAA | 5.00 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.77 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs PIT | 4.77 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Ethan Pecko
Probable starter
|
HOU vs AZ | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mason Adams
Probable starter
|
COL vs STL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CHC | 4.62 | 22.6% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 4.60 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 4.54 | 20.9% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 4.48 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.32 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 4.11 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs HOU | 4.10 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 4.03 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 3.84 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 3.80 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs COL | 3.47 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Anthony Molina
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 3.36 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs KC | 3.30 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIA | 3.21 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 3.12 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAD | 3.06 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.