Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TB | 6.25 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 5.93 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs BOS | 5.77 | 25.1% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 5 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs LAA | 5.72 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 5.32 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 5.12 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs NYY | 5.10 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs TEX | 5.08 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
TOR vs KC | 4.83 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 4.76 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Hudson
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs TOR | 4.56 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs SD | 4.48 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs AZ | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 4.33 | 19.0% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs SF | 4.32 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Cesar Perdomo
Probable starter
|
SF vs NYM | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs PIT | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs HOU | 4.09 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 4 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs WSH | 4.04 | 17.1% | 15.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 4.03 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs STL | 4.00 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 3.98 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIA | 3.70 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs BAL | 3.69 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAD | 3.66 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 3.53 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CHC | 3.51 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs COL | 3.20 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.