Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs ATH | 6.57 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 6.51 | 27.6% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 17.4 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs LAD | 5.88 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs STL | 5.83 | 23.0% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 6 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs WSH | 5.72 | 29.6% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BAL | 5.18 | 27.2% | 30.6% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CLE | 4.73 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 4.67 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 4.61 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TOR | 4.60 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs AZ | 4.40 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 4.34 | 21.5% | 19.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 5 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIN | 4.33 | 22.0% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 4.32 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SD | 3.92 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jonah Tong
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 3.79 | 23.2% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 3.79 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs SF | 2.87 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 6 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.