Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs KC
Score 71.3 | Lineup K 5.91
|
6.98 | 6.72 | -0.26 | 85.9% | 75.0% | 62.2% | 48.9% | 36.5% |
Cole Ragans
Probable | projected
|
KC vs ATL
Score 72.1 | Lineup K 6.45
|
6.03 | 6.29 | +0.26 | 82.8% | 70.6% | 56.8% | 43.2% | 31.1% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs ATH
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 6.21
|
5.43 | 5.82 | +0.39 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.4% | 36.8% | 25.3% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SF vs NYY
Score 50.0 | Lineup K 6.12
|
5.25 | 5.55 | +0.30 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CLE
Score 66.0 | Lineup K 5.20
|
5.20 | 5.32 | +0.12 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SD
Score 49.0 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.05 | 5.28 | +0.23 | 73.1% | 57.8% | 42.5% | 29.3% | 19.0% |
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs SEA
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 5.59
|
5.03 | 5.25 | +0.22 | 72.8% | 57.3% | 42.1% | 28.9% | 18.7% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 4.76
|
5.48 | 5.24 | -0.24 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SF
Score 70.3 | Lineup K 5.77
|
4.77 | 5.20 | +0.43 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs COL
Score 57.2 | Lineup K 6.13
|
4.61 | 5.17 | +0.56 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs DET
Score 63.6 | Lineup K 5.89
|
4.68 | 5.16 | +0.48 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs HOU
Score 46.6 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.88 | 4.90 | +0.02 | 68.4% | 52.1% | 36.8% | 24.2% | 15.0% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs LAA
Score 54.9 | Lineup K 5.29
|
4.48 | 4.78 | +0.30 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Luis Severino
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TOR
Score 38.9 | Lineup K 4.46
|
3.91 | 4.11 | +0.20 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Ryne Nelson
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 4.20
|
4.00 | 3.99 | -0.01 | 54.3% | 36.9% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIA
Score 30.7 | Lineup K 4.07
|
3.78 | 3.82 | +0.04 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.