Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CIN
Score 76.5 | Lineup K 7.72
|
7.06 | 7.37 | +0.31 | 89.5% | 80.6% | 69.3% | 56.9% | 44.5% |
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SD
Score 81.9 | Lineup K 7.20
|
6.45 | 6.88 | +0.43 | 86.9% | 76.5% | 64.0% | 50.9% | 38.5% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs LAA
Score 78.4 | Lineup K 7.81
|
5.91 | 6.72 | +0.81 | 85.9% | 75.0% | 62.2% | 48.9% | 36.5% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CLE
Score 67.6 | Lineup K 5.98
|
6.33 | 6.36 | +0.03 | 83.4% | 71.4% | 57.7% | 44.1% | 32.0% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs NYM
Score 69.1 | Lineup K 6.53
|
5.98 | 6.20 | +0.22 | 82.1% | 69.6% | 55.6% | 42.0% | 30.0% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 54.6 | Lineup K 5.22
|
6.32 | 5.96 | -0.36 | 80.1% | 66.8% | 52.4% | 38.7% | 27.0% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs DET
Score 69.9 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.76 | 5.91 | +0.15 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs PIT
Score 65.7 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.75 | 5.90 | +0.15 | 79.5% | 66.1% | 51.5% | 37.9% | 26.3% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CWS
Score 68.9 | Lineup K 5.78
|
5.48 | 5.78 | +0.30 | 78.4% | 64.6% | 49.9% | 36.2% | 24.8% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TEX
Score 53.3 | Lineup K 5.92
|
5.71 | 5.74 | +0.03 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BAL
Score 56.6 | Lineup K 6.39
|
5.25 | 5.62 | +0.37 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs PHI
Score 58.6 | Lineup K 6.48
|
5.14 | 5.59 | +0.45 | 76.5% | 62.1% | 47.1% | 33.6% | 22.6% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs SEA
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 5.15
|
5.13 | 5.17 | +0.04 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs BOS
Score 52.9 | Lineup K 6.25
|
4.59 | 5.10 | +0.51 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Shane Smith
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIL
Score 59.1 | Lineup K 6.26
|
4.34 | 4.99 | +0.65 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 4.93
|
4.90 | 4.88 | -0.02 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs WSH
Score 47.6 | Lineup K 4.86
|
4.67 | 4.77 | +0.10 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIN
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 5.22
|
4.54 | 4.68 | +0.14 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs HOU
Score 38.7 | Lineup K 5.32
|
3.93 | 4.36 | +0.43 | 60.5% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 17.4% | 9.9% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs TB
Score 41.1 | Lineup K 4.67
|
4.10 | 4.23 | +0.13 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs CHC
Score 27.2 | Lineup K 4.35
|
3.49 | 3.76 | +0.27 | 50.2% | 32.8% | 19.6% | 10.8% | 5.5% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs STL
Score 50.7 | Lineup K 4.82
|
3.35 | 3.72 | +0.37 | 49.5% | 32.1% | 19.1% | 10.4% | 5.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.