Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs ATH
Score 73.0 | Lineup K 6.72
|
6.40 | 6.70 | +0.30 | 85.7% | 74.8% | 61.9% | 48.6% | 36.2% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs CIN
Score 75.5 | Lineup K 6.87
|
5.76 | 6.34 | +0.58 | 83.2% | 71.2% | 57.5% | 43.9% | 31.7% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIN
Score 72.0 | Lineup K 6.18
|
5.93 | 6.18 | +0.25 | 81.9% | 69.4% | 55.4% | 41.7% | 29.7% |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs AZ
Score 66.2 | Lineup K 5.62
|
5.97 | 5.92 | -0.05 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TEX
Score 53.2 | Lineup K 5.81
|
5.42 | 5.63 | +0.21 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CLE
Score 69.9 | Lineup K 5.41
|
5.52 | 5.62 | +0.10 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SD
Score 57.0 | Lineup K 5.56
|
5.49 | 5.55 | +0.06 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs PHI
Score 71.5 | Lineup K 5.97
|
5.03 | 5.51 | +0.48 | 75.7% | 61.0% | 46.0% | 32.5% | 21.6% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs COL
Score 73.0 | Lineup K 5.81
|
4.92 | 5.33 | +0.41 | 73.7% | 58.5% | 43.3% | 30.0% | 19.6% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs BOS
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 5.37
|
4.88 | 5.07 | +0.19 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs SEA
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 5.41
|
4.81 | 5.06 | +0.25 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BAL
Score 51.1 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.50 | 4.98 | +0.48 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CWS
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.65 | 4.87 | +0.22 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SF
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 5.12
|
4.59 | 4.78 | +0.19 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs PIT
Score 49.9 | Lineup K 5.56
|
4.15 | 4.69 | +0.54 | 65.5% | 48.7% | 33.5% | 21.5% | 12.9% |
Cristian Javier
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs LAA
Score 49.4 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.18 | 4.66 | +0.48 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs LAD
Score 34.8 | Lineup K 5.03
|
4.43 | 4.58 | +0.15 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs NYM
Score 42.7 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.13 | 4.54 | +0.41 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Joe Boyle
Probable | projected
|
TB vs STL
Score 46.3 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.33 | 4.52 | +0.19 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs MIA
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 4.67
|
4.10 | 4.27 | +0.17 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
SF vs NYY
Score 39.1 | Lineup K 4.87
|
3.94 | 4.23 | +0.29 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIL
Score 30.2 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.82 | 3.98 | +0.16 | 54.2% | 36.7% | 22.8% | 13.1% | 7.0% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs TOR
Score 33.8 | Lineup K 4.13
|
3.81 | 3.91 | +0.10 | 52.9% | 35.5% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs ATL
Score 31.7 | Lineup K 4.56
|
3.58 | 3.87 | +0.29 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Cade Horton
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs WSH
Score 37.1 | Lineup K 3.89
|
3.88 | 3.84 | -0.04 | 51.7% | 34.2% | 20.7% | 11.6% | 6.0% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs TB
Score 31.5 | Lineup K 3.59
|
3.54 | 3.50 | -0.04 | 45.3% | 28.3% | 16.1% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs CHC
Score 21.1 | Lineup K 3.67
|
2.98 | 3.15 | +0.17 | 38.3% | 22.3% | 11.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs DET
Score 16.2 | Lineup K 3.53
|
2.92 | 3.05 | +0.13 | 36.2% | 20.6% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.