Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATL
Score 61.9 | Lineup K 5.82
|
6.49 | 6.32 | -0.17 | 83.0% | 70.9% | 57.2% | 43.6% | 31.5% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BAL
Score 70.6 | Lineup K 6.09
|
5.91 | 6.07 | +0.16 | 81.0% | 68.1% | 53.9% | 40.2% | 28.4% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs CWS
Score 52.5 | Lineup K 5.36
|
5.92 | 5.74 | -0.18 | 78.0% | 64.0% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 24.3% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs HOU
Score 69.5 | Lineup K 5.69
|
5.48 | 5.64 | +0.16 | 77.0% | 62.7% | 47.9% | 34.3% | 23.2% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIA
Score 61.8 | Lineup K 5.91
|
5.08 | 5.42 | +0.34 | 74.7% | 59.8% | 44.6% | 31.2% | 20.6% |
Edward Cabrera
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.95
|
5.06 | 5.41 | +0.35 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs NYY
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 5.84
|
4.39 | 4.88 | +0.49 | 68.1% | 51.7% | 36.5% | 23.9% | 14.8% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 5.17
|
4.46 | 4.72 | +0.26 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 48.6 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.66 | 4.55 | -0.11 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Davis Martin
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs LAA
Score 39.1 | Lineup K 5.07
|
3.97 | 4.32 | +0.35 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Chad Patrick
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs STL
Score 59.0 | Lineup K 5.36
|
3.80 | 4.24 | +0.44 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs TB
Score 44.7 | Lineup K 4.31
|
3.89 | 4.02 | +0.13 | 54.9% | 37.4% | 23.4% | 13.5% | 7.3% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs TOR
Score 34.1 | Lineup K 4.04
|
3.84 | 3.86 | +0.02 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 21.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PHI
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 3.74
|
3.58 | 3.58 | +0.00 | 46.8% | 29.7% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs NYM
Score 17.7 | Lineup K 3.76
|
3.41 | 3.44 | +0.03 | 44.1% | 27.2% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SF
Score 23.4 | Lineup K 3.46
|
3.30 | 3.28 | -0.02 | 40.9% | 24.5% | 13.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.