Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MacKenzie Gore
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs NYY
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 6.13
|
5.76 | 5.91 | +0.15 | 79.6% | 66.2% | 51.7% | 38.0% | 26.4% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs STL
Score 69.0 | Lineup K 5.98
|
5.07 | 5.47 | +0.40 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 5.62
|
5.34 | 5.47 | +0.13 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs BAL
Score 35.6 | Lineup K 5.33
|
4.95 | 5.02 | +0.07 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 4.69
|
5.10 | 4.91 | -0.19 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs PHI
Score 57.1 | Lineup K 5.96
|
4.13 | 4.65 | +0.52 | 64.9% | 48.1% | 32.9% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PIT
Score 46.3 | Lineup K 5.35
|
4.22 | 4.60 | +0.38 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Cade Povich
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIA
Score 42.9 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.38 | 4.50 | +0.12 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Jake Irvin
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIN
Score 34.2 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.28 | 4.39 | +0.11 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs AZ
Score 41.4 | Lineup K 4.57
|
3.89 | 4.10 | +0.21 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs WSH
Score 36.5 | Lineup K 3.90
|
3.96 | 3.90 | -0.06 | 52.7% | 35.3% | 21.6% | 12.2% | 6.5% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 33.6 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.80 | 3.82 | +0.02 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs SD
Score 22.9 | Lineup K 3.73
|
3.45 | 3.47 | +0.02 | 44.7% | 27.8% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
Jose Quintana
Probable | projected
|
COL vs NYM
Score 21.9 | Lineup K 4.32
|
3.04 | 3.33 | +0.29 | 41.9% | 25.3% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 3.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.