Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs STL
Score 80.6 | Lineup K 6.43
|
5.70 | 6.16 | +0.46 | 81.8% | 69.2% | 55.1% | 41.4% | 29.5% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs SF
Score 65.0 | Lineup K 5.64
|
6.21 | 6.08 | -0.13 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs WSH
Score 63.9 | Lineup K 5.49
|
5.91 | 5.83 | -0.08 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 50.6% | 36.9% | 25.4% |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs AZ
Score 69.8 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.63 | 5.77 | +0.14 | 78.3% | 64.4% | 49.7% | 36.1% | 24.7% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs MIN
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.79
|
5.54 | 5.72 | +0.18 | 77.8% | 63.8% | 49.0% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs PHI
Score 56.5 | Lineup K 5.96
|
5.30 | 5.56 | +0.26 | 76.2% | 61.7% | 46.7% | 33.2% | 22.2% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs DET
Score 36.8 | Lineup K 5.05
|
5.23 | 5.11 | -0.12 | 71.1% | 55.3% | 40.0% | 27.0% | 17.2% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs ATL
Score 48.2 | Lineup K 6.12
|
4.56 | 5.10 | +0.54 | 71.0% | 55.1% | 39.8% | 26.9% | 17.0% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs COL
Score 56.4 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.08 | 4.59 | +0.51 | 64.0% | 47.1% | 32.0% | 20.2% | 11.9% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TOR
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.34 | 4.58 | +0.24 | 63.9% | 46.9% | 31.8% | 20.1% | 11.9% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs ATH
Score 45.9 | Lineup K 5.26
|
4.00 | 4.43 | +0.43 | 61.6% | 44.4% | 29.5% | 18.2% | 10.5% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs KC
Score 32.1 | Lineup K 3.92
|
4.68 | 4.35 | -0.33 | 60.4% | 43.1% | 28.3% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIL
Score 33.9 | Lineup K 4.29
|
4.27 | 4.26 | -0.01 | 58.9% | 41.5% | 26.9% | 16.2% | 9.1% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs HOU
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 5.33
|
3.78 | 4.19 | +0.41 | 57.8% | 40.3% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CIN
Score 41.4 | Lineup K 5.16
|
3.75 | 4.17 | +0.42 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs HOU
Score 22.6 | Lineup K 4.01
|
3.66 | 3.66 | +0.00 | 48.3% | 31.1% | 18.2% | 9.8% | 5.0% |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PIT
Score 27.2 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.14 | 3.36 | +0.22 | 42.5% | 25.8% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs NYM
Score 17.2 | Lineup K 3.74
|
3.00 | 3.17 | +0.17 | 38.7% | 22.6% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.