Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | confirmed
|
PHI vs LAD
Score 68.7 | Lineup K 6.49
|
6.77 | 6.77 | +0.00 | 86.2% | 75.5% | 62.7% | 49.5% | 37.1% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | confirmed
|
TOR vs TB
Score 57.5 | Lineup K 5.19
|
5.92 | 5.70 | -0.22 | 77.6% | 63.5% | 48.7% | 35.1% | 23.9% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 68.7 | Lineup K 5.85
|
5.48 | 5.69 | +0.21 | 77.5% | 63.4% | 48.6% | 35.0% | 23.7% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CIN
Score 67.5 | Lineup K 6.54
|
4.94 | 5.58 | +0.64 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs PIT
Score 44.9 | Lineup K 5.28
|
5.12 | 5.15 | +0.03 | 71.6% | 55.9% | 40.6% | 27.6% | 17.6% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs DET
Score 44.6 | Lineup K 5.46
|
4.74 | 5.02 | +0.28 | 70.0% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CHC
Score 49.2 | Lineup K 5.70
|
4.57 | 5.01 | +0.44 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CWS
Score 44.3 | Lineup K 4.46
|
4.22 | 4.24 | +0.02 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable | projected
|
COL vs WSH
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.08
|
4.13 | 4.06 | -0.07 | 55.5% | 38.1% | 23.9% | 13.9% | 7.6% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | confirmed
|
SF vs KC
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 4.07
|
4.02 | 3.99 | -0.03 | 54.3% | 36.9% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | confirmed
|
TB vs TOR
Score 49.9 | Lineup K 3.87
|
3.90 | 3.89 | -0.01 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs LAA
Score 33.6 | Lineup K 4.51
|
3.45 | 3.77 | +0.32 | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | confirmed
|
SD vs ATL
Score 21.1 | Lineup K 3.79
|
3.10 | 3.26 | +0.16 | 40.5% | 24.1% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.