Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | confirmed
|
TOR vs TB
Score 63.5 | Lineup K 5.61
|
6.94 | 6.54 | -0.40 | 84.7% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 46.5% | 34.2% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | confirmed
|
PHI vs LAD
Score 58.3 | Lineup K 5.84
|
6.22 | 6.13 | -0.09 | 81.5% | 68.8% | 54.7% | 41.0% | 29.1% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | confirmed
|
MIL vs NYM
Score 65.6 | Lineup K 5.36
|
6.36 | 6.02 | -0.34 | 80.6% | 67.5% | 53.2% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | confirmed
|
MIN vs CLE
Score 73.6 | Lineup K 6.36
|
5.66 | 6.02 | +0.36 | 80.6% | 67.5% | 53.2% | 39.5% | 27.7% |
George Kirby
Probable | confirmed
|
SEA vs CIN
Score 68.6 | Lineup K 6.20
|
5.63 | 5.92 | +0.29 | 79.7% | 66.3% | 51.8% | 38.1% | 26.5% |
José Soriano
Probable | confirmed
|
LAA vs STL
Score 53.4 | Lineup K 5.31
|
5.93 | 5.73 | -0.20 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | confirmed
|
NYM vs MIL
Score 72.2 | Lineup K 5.90
|
5.54 | 5.71 | +0.17 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | confirmed
|
TEX vs CWS
Score 74.5 | Lineup K 5.17
|
5.58 | 5.54 | -0.04 | 76.0% | 61.4% | 46.4% | 32.9% | 22.0% |
Jack Flaherty
Probable | confirmed
|
DET vs CHC
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 5.51
|
5.41 | 5.41 | +0.00 | 74.6% | 59.6% | 44.5% | 31.1% | 20.5% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | confirmed
|
CLE vs MIN
Score 61.8 | Lineup K 5.52
|
4.97 | 5.21 | +0.24 | 72.3% | 56.8% | 41.5% | 28.4% | 18.2% |
Ronel Blanco
Probable | confirmed
|
HOU vs MIA
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 4.78
|
5.20 | 5.06 | -0.14 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | confirmed
|
NYY vs PIT
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 4.62
|
5.25 | 5.00 | -0.25 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | confirmed
|
LAD vs PHI
Score 59.9 | Lineup K 5.43
|
4.70 | 4.99 | +0.29 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | confirmed
|
ATL vs SD
Score 34.4 | Lineup K 4.42
|
5.24 | 4.89 | -0.35 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Shane Baz
Probable | confirmed
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 51.7 | Lineup K 5.33
|
4.65 | 4.89 | +0.24 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | confirmed
|
KC vs SF
Score 45.4 | Lineup K 4.31
|
4.98 | 4.73 | -0.25 | 66.0% | 49.4% | 34.1% | 22.0% | 13.3% |
Jameson Taillon
Probable | confirmed
|
CHC vs DET
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 4.96
|
4.63 | 4.68 | +0.05 | 65.3% | 48.6% | 33.4% | 21.3% | 12.8% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | confirmed
|
CIN vs SEA
Score 46.2 | Lineup K 5.41
|
3.63 | 4.05 | +0.42 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Jp Sears
Probable | confirmed
|
SD vs ATL
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 4.45
|
3.78 | 3.95 | +0.17 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | confirmed
|
ATH vs AZ
Score 31.6 | Lineup K 3.43
|
4.30 | 3.94 | -0.36 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | confirmed
|
COL vs WSH
Score 28.3 | Lineup K 3.86
|
4.05 | 3.91 | -0.14 | 52.9% | 35.5% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | confirmed
|
CWS vs TEX
Score 38.5 | Lineup K 4.87
|
3.27 | 3.63 | +0.36 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | confirmed
|
TB vs TOR
Score 35.1 | Lineup K 3.66
|
3.47 | 3.49 | +0.02 | 45.1% | 28.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
Janson Junk
Probable | confirmed
|
MIA vs HOU
Score 27.5 | Lineup K 3.54
|
3.19 | 3.25 | +0.06 | 40.3% | 24.0% | 12.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.