Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs LAA
Score 72.3 | Lineup K 6.47
|
5.85 | 6.18 | +0.33 | 81.9% | 69.4% | 55.4% | 41.7% | 29.7% |
Blake Snell
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs DET
Score 76.7 | Lineup K 6.75
|
5.75 | 6.17 | +0.42 | 81.9% | 69.3% | 55.2% | 41.5% | 29.6% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 67.2 | Lineup K 6.35
|
5.94 | 6.17 | +0.23 | 81.9% | 69.3% | 55.2% | 41.5% | 29.6% |
Carlos Rodón
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 55.4 | Lineup K 5.97
|
5.92 | 5.96 | +0.04 | 80.1% | 66.8% | 52.4% | 38.7% | 27.0% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SEA
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 5.94
|
5.96 | 5.86 | -0.10 | 79.2% | 65.6% | 51.0% | 37.3% | 25.8% |
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 59.6 | Lineup K 6.04
|
5.53 | 5.75 | +0.22 | 78.1% | 64.2% | 49.4% | 35.8% | 24.5% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs ATH
Score 54.6 | Lineup K 5.77
|
4.67 | 5.07 | +0.40 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 41.8 | Lineup K 4.79
|
4.73 | 4.72 | -0.01 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 56.2 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.36 | 4.60 | +0.24 | 64.2% | 47.3% | 32.1% | 20.3% | 12.0% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs SF
Score 53.8 | Lineup K 5.24
|
3.99 | 4.44 | +0.45 | 61.8% | 44.6% | 29.7% | 18.3% | 10.6% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs SD
Score 32.3 | Lineup K 4.19
|
3.86 | 3.96 | +0.10 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CHC
Score 40.5 | Lineup K 4.56
|
3.65 | 3.94 | +0.29 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs COL
Score 38.4 | Lineup K 4.78
|
3.50 | 3.88 | +0.38 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs MIA
Score 39.4 | Lineup K 4.78
|
3.44 | 3.82 | +0.38 | 51.3% | 33.9% | 20.5% | 11.4% | 5.9% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 35.0 | Lineup K 4.86
|
3.28 | 3.63 | +0.35 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs LAD
Score 20.1 | Lineup K 3.78
|
3.50 | 3.48 | -0.02 | 44.9% | 27.9% | 15.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TB
Score 28.9 | Lineup K 3.71
|
3.11 | 3.30 | +0.19 | 41.3% | 24.8% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs MIL
Score 18.4 | Lineup K 3.79
|
2.85 | 3.10 | +0.25 | 37.3% | 21.4% | 11.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.