Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs ATH
Score 73.0 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.60 | 5.90 | +0.30 | 79.5% | 66.1% | 51.5% | 37.9% | 26.3% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 53.3 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.40 | 5.46 | +0.06 | 75.1% | 60.3% | 45.2% | 31.8% | 21.1% |
George Kirby
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BOS
Score 57.0 | Lineup K 5.55
|
5.28 | 5.40 | +0.12 | 74.5% | 59.5% | 44.3% | 31.0% | 20.4% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CIN
Score 72.6 | Lineup K 6.52
|
4.72 | 5.38 | +0.66 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Bryce Elder
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs SF
Score 43.7 | Lineup K 4.77
|
5.26 | 5.06 | -0.20 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs AZ
Score 46.3 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.94 | 4.94 | +0.00 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Cade Povich
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs COL
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.46
|
4.41 | 4.79 | +0.38 | 66.9% | 50.3% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs PHI
Score 44.1 | Lineup K 5.22
|
4.48 | 4.72 | +0.24 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs CHC
Score 36.1 | Lineup K 4.48
|
4.76 | 4.61 | -0.15 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs SD
Score 41.9 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.33 | 4.52 | +0.19 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Ryan Gusto
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 40.3 | Lineup K 4.42
|
4.24 | 4.27 | +0.03 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Clay Holmes
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs MIL
Score 27.8 | Lineup K 4.38
|
4.08 | 4.11 | +0.03 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Tanner Gordon
Probable | projected
|
COL vs BAL
Score 24.9 | Lineup K 4.14
|
4.00 | 3.97 | -0.03 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs MIN
Score 25.2 | Lineup K 4.71
|
3.53 | 3.86 | +0.33 | 52.0% | 34.6% | 21.0% | 11.8% | 6.2% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.