Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Max Fried
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs PIT
Score 67.2 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.50 | 5.80 | +0.30 | 78.6% | 64.8% | 50.1% | 36.5% | 25.1% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 65.6 | Lineup K 5.96
|
5.48 | 5.72 | +0.24 | 77.8% | 63.8% | 49.0% | 35.4% | 24.1% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs LAD
Score 45.8 | Lineup K 5.58
|
5.30 | 5.38 | +0.08 | 74.3% | 59.2% | 44.0% | 30.7% | 20.1% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs SF
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 4.99
|
5.11 | 5.12 | +0.01 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Michael King
Probable | projected
|
SD vs ATL
Score 55.4 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.70 | 5.08 | +0.38 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs ATH
Score 55.5 | Lineup K 5.75
|
4.36 | 4.87 | +0.51 | 68.0% | 51.6% | 36.3% | 23.8% | 14.6% |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs HOU
Score 39.8 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.70 | 4.78 | +0.08 | 66.8% | 50.2% | 34.9% | 22.6% | 13.8% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs BOS
Score 41.4 | Lineup K 4.97
|
4.43 | 4.54 | +0.11 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs DET
Score 39.8 | Lineup K 4.78
|
4.28 | 4.42 | +0.14 | 61.5% | 44.3% | 29.4% | 18.1% | 10.4% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs CIN
Score 32.2 | Lineup K 4.71
|
4.28 | 4.37 | +0.09 | 60.7% | 43.4% | 28.6% | 17.5% | 10.0% |
Brady Singer
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs SEA
Score 43.1 | Lineup K 5.58
|
3.90 | 4.34 | +0.44 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Mitch Keller
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs NYY
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 5.79
|
3.90 | 4.30 | +0.40 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CLE
Score 56.5 | Lineup K 4.81
|
3.97 | 4.29 | +0.32 | 59.4% | 42.0% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 9.3% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIN
Score 36.8 | Lineup K 4.58
|
4.18 | 4.27 | +0.09 | 59.1% | 41.7% | 27.1% | 16.3% | 9.2% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs KC
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.16
|
4.26 | 4.22 | -0.04 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 26.3% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs PHI
Score 41.1 | Lineup K 4.79
|
3.89 | 4.18 | +0.29 | 57.6% | 40.2% | 25.7% | 15.3% | 8.5% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs SD
Score 18.5 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.48 | 3.52 | +0.04 | 45.6% | 28.6% | 16.3% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable | projected
|
STL vs LAA
Score 37.4 | Lineup K 4.42
|
3.14 | 3.48 | +0.34 | 44.9% | 27.9% | 15.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs COL
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 5.40
|
3.04 | 3.40 | +0.36 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CHC
Score 26.9 | Lineup K 3.82
|
3.10 | 3.29 | +0.19 | 41.1% | 24.6% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.