Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs LAA
Score 91.2 | Lineup K 7.96
|
6.40 | 7.17 | +0.77 | 88.5% | 79.0% | 67.2% | 54.5% | 42.1% |
Tyler Glasnow
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs DET
Score 77.0 | Lineup K 6.48
|
5.89 | 6.17 | +0.28 | 81.9% | 69.3% | 55.2% | 41.5% | 29.6% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TOR
Score 65.8 | Lineup K 5.61
|
6.14 | 6.03 | -0.11 | 80.7% | 67.6% | 53.3% | 39.6% | 27.9% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 58.0 | Lineup K 5.62
|
5.35 | 5.48 | +0.13 | 75.3% | 60.6% | 45.5% | 32.1% | 21.3% |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs PHI
Score 54.7 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.15 | 5.34 | +0.19 | 73.8% | 58.6% | 43.5% | 30.1% | 19.7% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs LAD
Score 44.9 | Lineup K 5.94
|
4.98 | 5.24 | +0.26 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TB
Score 54.0 | Lineup K 5.25
|
5.21 | 5.24 | +0.03 | 72.7% | 57.2% | 41.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.21
|
5.13 | 5.13 | +0.00 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 4.92
|
5.07 | 4.98 | -0.09 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs NYY
Score 47.1 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.27 | 4.77 | +0.50 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Seth Lugo
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 51.3 | Lineup K 4.69
|
4.76 | 4.74 | -0.02 | 66.2% | 49.5% | 34.3% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs BAL
Score 32.6 | Lineup K 4.68
|
4.70 | 4.63 | -0.07 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs COL
Score 53.1 | Lineup K 5.07
|
4.41 | 4.61 | +0.20 | 64.3% | 47.4% | 32.3% | 20.4% | 12.1% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs TEX
Score 32.9 | Lineup K 4.85
|
4.22 | 4.38 | +0.16 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Jordan Hicks
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 42.0 | Lineup K 5.10
|
3.90 | 4.25 | +0.35 | 58.7% | 41.4% | 26.8% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs SD
Score 47.2 | Lineup K 4.14
|
4.29 | 4.23 | -0.06 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 26.5% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
Max Scherzer
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SEA
Score 47.0 | Lineup K 5.45
|
3.68 | 4.11 | +0.43 | 56.4% | 39.0% | 24.7% | 14.5% | 7.9% |
Kumar Rocker
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs MIL
Score 33.7 | Lineup K 4.42
|
3.85 | 4.00 | +0.15 | 54.5% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 13.3% | 7.1% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PIT
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 4.22
|
3.85 | 3.87 | +0.02 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Chris Bassitt
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs ATH
Score 61.2 | Lineup K 6.20
|
3.41 | 3.85 | +0.44 | 51.8% | 34.4% | 20.9% | 11.7% | 6.1% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 30.5 | Lineup K 3.18
|
3.20 | 3.08 | -0.12 | 36.9% | 21.1% | 10.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.