Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs STL
Score 83.2 | Lineup K 7.15
|
6.39 | 6.76 | +0.37 | 86.1% | 75.4% | 62.6% | 49.4% | 37.0% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BOS
Score 43.7 | Lineup K 5.62
|
5.93 | 5.79 | -0.14 | 78.5% | 64.7% | 50.0% | 36.4% | 24.9% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CIN
Score 67.4 | Lineup K 6.54
|
4.94 | 5.58 | +0.64 | 76.4% | 62.0% | 47.0% | 33.5% | 22.4% |
Robbie Ray
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIL
Score 47.7 | Lineup K 5.42
|
5.58 | 5.51 | -0.07 | 75.7% | 61.0% | 46.0% | 32.5% | 21.6% |
Framber Valdez
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 6.01
|
4.95 | 5.37 | +0.42 | 74.1% | 59.1% | 43.9% | 30.6% | 20.0% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SEA
Score 42.0 | Lineup K 5.48
|
5.12 | 5.21 | +0.09 | 72.3% | 56.8% | 41.5% | 28.4% | 18.2% |
Zebby Matthews
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BAL
Score 44.7 | Lineup K 5.47
|
5.05 | 5.12 | +0.07 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Merrill Kelly
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs COL
Score 62.8 | Lineup K 6.04
|
4.36 | 4.93 | +0.57 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIN
Score 53.9 | Lineup K 5.55
|
4.65 | 4.93 | +0.28 | 68.8% | 52.5% | 37.2% | 24.6% | 15.3% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs WSH
Score 46.8 | Lineup K 5.16
|
4.36 | 4.63 | +0.27 | 64.6% | 47.8% | 32.6% | 20.7% | 12.3% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYY
Score 43.2 | Lineup K 5.42
|
4.05 | 4.50 | +0.45 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TOR
Score 50.6 | Lineup K 4.88
|
4.25 | 4.47 | +0.22 | 62.2% | 45.1% | 30.1% | 18.7% | 10.9% |
Tyler Mahle
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 34.6 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.40 | 4.33 | -0.07 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable | projected
|
TB vs ATH
Score 57.8 | Lineup K 4.72
|
3.90 | 4.17 | +0.27 | 57.4% | 40.0% | 25.6% | 15.2% | 8.4% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs KC
Score 34.5 | Lineup K 4.05
|
4.27 | 4.14 | -0.13 | 56.9% | 39.5% | 25.1% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs SD
Score 32.5 | Lineup K 4.61
|
3.83 | 4.05 | +0.22 | 55.4% | 37.9% | 23.8% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
Ryan Feltner
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 29.0 | Lineup K 3.95
|
3.42 | 3.54 | +0.12 | 46.0% | 29.0% | 16.6% | 8.8% | 4.3% |
Janson Junk
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PIT
Score 30.6 | Lineup K 3.62
|
3.56 | 3.53 | -0.03 | 45.9% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs LAA
Score 31.4 | Lineup K 4.71
|
2.84 | 3.13 | +0.29 | 37.9% | 21.9% | 11.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs MIA
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 2.88
|
3.18 | 3.02 | -0.16 | 35.6% | 20.1% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.