Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BOS
Score 64.9 | Lineup K 6.29
|
6.94 | 6.79 | -0.15 | 86.3% | 75.7% | 63.0% | 49.8% | 37.4% |
Blake Snell
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs KC
Score 70.1 | Lineup K 5.97
|
6.10 | 6.15 | +0.05 | 81.7% | 69.0% | 55.0% | 41.3% | 29.3% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs SF
Score 71.4 | Lineup K 5.98
|
6.07 | 6.08 | +0.01 | 81.1% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 40.3% | 28.5% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs STL
Score 68.1 | Lineup K 6.09
|
5.84 | 6.01 | +0.17 | 80.5% | 67.4% | 53.1% | 39.4% | 27.6% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs MIA
Score 79.4 | Lineup K 6.42
|
5.33 | 5.85 | +0.52 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs NYY
Score 62.8 | Lineup K 6.25
|
4.71 | 5.30 | +0.59 | 73.4% | 58.1% | 42.9% | 29.6% | 19.2% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs CWS
Score 63.1 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.79 | 5.08 | +0.29 | 70.7% | 54.8% | 39.5% | 26.6% | 16.8% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs SEA
Score 33.0 | Lineup K 4.85
|
5.25 | 5.04 | -0.21 | 70.2% | 54.2% | 38.9% | 26.1% | 16.4% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs DET
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 5.66
|
4.59 | 4.99 | +0.40 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Shota Imanaga
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs WSH
Score 50.1 | Lineup K 4.87
|
4.97 | 4.94 | -0.03 | 68.9% | 52.7% | 37.4% | 24.7% | 15.4% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs PIT
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 5.24
|
4.66 | 4.91 | +0.25 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Bailey Ober
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs BAL
Score 48.8 | Lineup K 5.56
|
4.34 | 4.76 | +0.42 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs SD
Score 35.9 | Lineup K 4.54
|
4.75 | 4.62 | -0.13 | 64.5% | 47.6% | 32.5% | 20.6% | 12.2% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs LAD
Score 31.6 | Lineup K 4.52
|
4.60 | 4.50 | -0.10 | 62.7% | 45.6% | 30.6% | 19.1% | 11.1% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs CIN
Score 40.0 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.05 | 4.39 | +0.34 | 61.0% | 43.8% | 28.9% | 17.7% | 10.2% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs ATH
Score 43.8 | Lineup K 4.82
|
3.47 | 3.87 | +0.40 | 52.2% | 34.8% | 21.2% | 11.9% | 6.2% |
Andre Pallante
Probable | projected
|
STL vs PHI
Score 31.6 | Lineup K 4.59
|
3.27 | 3.61 | +0.34 | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 16.1 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.48 | 3.60 | +0.12 | 47.2% | 30.0% | 17.4% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs MIN
Score 27.0 | Lineup K 4.26
|
3.29 | 3.56 | +0.27 | 46.4% | 29.3% | 16.9% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs MIL
Score 23.0 | Lineup K 3.85
|
3.48 | 3.53 | +0.05 | 45.9% | 28.8% | 16.5% | 8.7% | 4.2% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs AZ
Score 16.5 | Lineup K 3.20
|
3.03 | 3.01 | -0.02 | 35.4% | 20.0% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.