Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs SEA
Score 65.3 | Lineup K 6.60
|
6.95 | 6.91 | -0.04 | 87.0% | 76.8% | 64.4% | 51.3% | 38.9% |
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs DET
Score 83.0 | Lineup K 7.05
|
6.17 | 6.65 | +0.48 | 85.4% | 74.3% | 61.3% | 47.9% | 35.6% |
Hunter Brown
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs NYM
Score 65.0 | Lineup K 6.00
|
6.08 | 6.12 | +0.04 | 81.5% | 68.7% | 54.6% | 40.9% | 29.0% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 66.9 | Lineup K 5.73
|
6.00 | 5.99 | -0.01 | 80.3% | 67.2% | 52.8% | 39.1% | 27.4% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs COL
Score 62.2 | Lineup K 6.18
|
4.72 | 5.28 | +0.56 | 73.1% | 57.8% | 42.5% | 29.3% | 19.0% |
David Peterson
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs CIN
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 5.94
|
4.74 | 5.17 | +0.43 | 71.8% | 56.2% | 40.9% | 27.8% | 17.8% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs MIN
Score 62.4 | Lineup K 6.09
|
4.58 | 5.16 | +0.58 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs KC
Score 53.5 | Lineup K 5.17
|
4.99 | 5.07 | +0.08 | 70.6% | 54.7% | 39.4% | 26.5% | 16.7% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs BAL
Score 53.6 | Lineup K 5.65
|
4.60 | 4.98 | +0.38 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Dean Kremer
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CWS
Score 48.4 | Lineup K 4.71
|
4.81 | 4.77 | -0.04 | 66.6% | 50.0% | 34.8% | 22.5% | 13.7% |
Casey Mize
Probable | projected
|
SD vs TB
Score 41.3 | Lineup K 4.19
|
4.78 | 4.54 | -0.24 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Michael Wacha
Probable | projected
|
KC vs CLE
Score 48.0 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.62 | 4.52 | -0.10 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs WSH
Score 56.6 | Lineup K 4.75
|
4.29 | 4.47 | +0.18 | 62.2% | 45.1% | 30.1% | 18.7% | 10.9% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs TOR
Score 21.5 | Lineup K 3.78
|
4.17 | 3.94 | -0.23 | 53.4% | 36.0% | 22.2% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
Brandon Young
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs ATH
Score 31.7 | Lineup K 4.51
|
3.31 | 3.65 | +0.34 | 48.1% | 30.9% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs ATL
Score 17.7 | Lineup K 3.70
|
3.04 | 3.19 | +0.15 | 39.1% | 22.9% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.