Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta
AZ 2, PIT 3. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
AZ 2, PIT 3
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:50Z UTC · back to slate
2 – 3final score
5total runs
62% → 100%PIT win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Kelly, Merrill vs Keller, Mitch · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
AZ 37.9%PIT 62.1%
4.42 – 5.46mean score
9.88mean total
47%NRFI
8.9%extra innings
4.02 / 4.01starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
AZ (gold) vs PIT (cyan)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
AZ per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carroll, Corbin | 4.93 | 1.095 | 0.134 | 1.822 | 0.617 | 1.127 | 0.485 |
| Perdomo, Geraldo | 4.816 | 0.983 | 0.071 | 1.377 | 0.747 | 0.647 | 0.424 |
| Moreno, Gabriel | 4.7 | 1.259 | 0.107 | 1.861 | 0.621 | 0.749 | 0.608 |
| Marte, Ketel | 4.594 | 1.074 | 0.128 | 1.732 | 0.404 | 0.702 | 0.644 |
| Kepler, Max | 4.484 | 0.966 | 0.101 | 1.476 | 0.443 | 0.901 | 0.508 |
| Locklear, Tyler | 4.374 | 1.062 | 0.112 | 1.642 | 0.476 | 0.892 | 0.528 |
| Del Castillo, Adrian | 4.272 | 0.863 | 0.096 | 1.323 | 0.4 | 1.105 | 0.425 |
| Vargas, Ildemaro | 4.157 | 1.039 | 0.077 | 1.498 | 0.309 | 0.511 | 0.427 |
| Waldschmidt, Ryan | 4.042 | 0.988 | 0.052 | 1.361 | 0.326 | 1.135 | 0.373 |
Projected batting lines
PIT per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mangum, Jake | 4.787 | 1.363 | 0.068 | 1.788 | 0.356 | 0.78 | 0.422 |
| Lowe, Brandon | 4.67 | 1.105 | 0.212 | 2.027 | 0.529 | 1.058 | 0.645 |
| Reynolds, Bryan | 4.549 | 1.143 | 0.139 | 1.833 | 0.684 | 0.891 | 0.583 |
| Valdez, Esmerlyn | 4.442 | 1.119 | 0.321 | 2.427 | 0.664 | 1.204 | 0.959 |
| O'Hearn, Ryan | 4.337 | 1.126 | 0.169 | 1.889 | 0.41 | 0.834 | 0.713 |
| Gonzales, Nick | 4.234 | 1.239 | 0.081 | 1.703 | 0.368 | 0.687 | 0.549 |
| Gonzalez, Jacob | 4.131 | 1.012 | 0.161 | 1.743 | 0.453 | 0.789 | 0.615 |
| Callihan, Tyler | 4.024 | 0.879 | 0.12 | 1.443 | 0.454 | 1.117 | 0.493 |
| Davis, Henry | 3.91 | 0.774 | 0.133 | 1.334 | 0.425 | 0.784 | 0.48 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Carroll, Corbin vs Keller, Mitch: OUT AIR
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Keller, Mitch: OUT AIR
Moreno, Gabriel vs Keller, Mitch: 1B
Marte, Ketel vs Keller, Mitch: 1B
Kepler, Max vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Mangum, Jake vs Kelly, Merrill: BB
Lowe, Brandon vs Kelly, Merrill: 3B +1 run (0-1)
Reynolds, Bryan vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR +1 run (0-2)
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Kelly, Merrill: K
— Top 2 —
Locklear, Tyler vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
Del Castillo, Adrian vs Keller, Mitch: 1B
Vargas, Ildemaro vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Keller, Mitch: 3B +1 run (1-2)
Carroll, Corbin vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Gonzales, Nick vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT GB
Callihan, Tyler vs Kelly, Merrill: 1B
Davis, Henry vs Kelly, Merrill: K
— Top 3 —
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Keller, Mitch: K
Moreno, Gabriel vs Keller, Mitch: OUT AIR
Marte, Ketel vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Mangum, Jake vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
Lowe, Brandon vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
Reynolds, Bryan vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Kepler, Max vs Keller, Mitch: OUT AIR
Locklear, Tyler vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
Del Castillo, Adrian vs Keller, Mitch: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Kelly, Merrill: 2B
Gonzales, Nick vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Vargas, Ildemaro vs Keller, Mitch: OUT GB
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Keller, Mitch: OUT AIR
Carroll, Corbin vs Keller, Mitch: 1B
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Keller, Mitch: 1B
Moreno, Gabriel vs Keller, Mitch: 1B +1 run (2-2)
Marte, Ketel vs Keller, Mitch: 2B +2 runs (4-2)
Kepler, Max vs Keller, Mitch: BB
Locklear, Tyler vs Keller, Mitch: 1B
Del Castillo, Adrian vs Keller, Mitch: 1B +1 run (5-2)
Vargas, Ildemaro vs Soto, Gregory: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Callihan, Tyler vs Kelly, Merrill: BB
Davis, Henry vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT AIR
Mangum, Jake vs Kelly, Merrill: 1B
Lowe, Brandon vs Kelly, Merrill: K
Reynolds, Bryan vs Kelly, Merrill: 1B
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Kelly, Merrill: K
— Top 6 —
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Soto, Gregory: BB
Carroll, Corbin vs Soto, Gregory: 1B
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Soto, Gregory: OUT GB
Moreno, Gabriel vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT GB
Marte, Ketel vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Kelly, Merrill: 1B
Gonzales, Nick vs Kelly, Merrill: OUT GB
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Kepler, Max vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT AIR
Locklear, Tyler vs Dotel, Wilber: OUT GB
Del Castillo, Adrian vs Urquidy, José: K
— Bottom 7 —
Callihan, Tyler vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
Davis, Henry vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT GB
Mangum, Jake vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
— Top 8 —
Vargas, Ildemaro vs Urquidy, José: OUT GB
Waldschmidt, Ryan vs Urquidy, José: BB
Carroll, Corbin vs Urquidy, José: K
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Urquidy, José: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Lowe, Brandon vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
Reynolds, Bryan vs Morillo, Juan: K
Valdez, Esmerlyn vs Morillo, Juan: BB
O'Hearn, Ryan vs Morillo, Juan: K
— Top 9 —
Moreno, Gabriel vs Urquidy, José: BB
Marte, Ketel vs Sisk, Evan: HR +2 runs (7-2)
Kepler, Max vs Sisk, Evan: BB
Locklear, Tyler vs Sisk, Evan: OUT GB
Del Castillo, Adrian vs Sisk, Evan: OUT AIR
Vargas, Ildemaro vs Sisk, Evan: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Gonzales, Nick vs Morillo, Juan: OUT AIR
Gonzalez, Jacob vs Thompson, Ryan: OUT GB
Callihan, Tyler vs Thompson, Ryan: OUT GB