Section III · Betting · 2026-07-27

TOR at WSH

Scherzer, Max vs Yean, Eddy · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TOR or WSH?

Mithrandir leans WSH over TOR.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

58.3% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TOR 4.8 · WSH 4.8 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.6 · Market 9.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line TOR 1.5 · WSH -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 44.9% · YRFI 55.1% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 19 Available in 19 player rows

Fangorn 6 Available in 6 player rows

Valinor 6 Available in 6 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

19 matched rows

Home runs · WSH vs TOR Cj Abrams Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P18.0% F22.3% V14.8%

Model 23.5% Market 13.9% Model-market gap +9.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs TOR Daylen Lile Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P17.4% F11.6% V12.2%

Model 20.1% Market 11.1% Model-market gap +9.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs TOR Luis García Jr. Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.0% F15.5% V13.8%

Model 21.0% Market 12.4% Model-market gap +8.6 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs TOR Keibert Ruiz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.8% F14.9% V11.7%

Model 18.2% Market 9.8% Model-market gap +8.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs TOR James Wood Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P17.7% F22.3% V16.2%

Model 21.7% Market 16.4% Model-market gap +5.3 pts

Open board

Home runs · WSH vs TOR José Tena Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.3% F15.5% V10.3%

Model 11.9% Market 7.7% Model-market gap +4.2 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs TOR Dylan Crews Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P89.3% F-- V--

Model 50.5% Market 32.3% Provisional model gap +18.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs TOR Daylen Lile Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.9% F-- V--

Model 35.9% Market 21.1% Provisional model gap +14.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs TOR Cj Abrams Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.1% F-- V--

Model 36.1% Market 21.3% Provisional model gap +14.9 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs TOR James Wood Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P77.7% F-- V--

Model 77.7% Market 63.0% Provisional model gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs TOR Luis García Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.6% F-- V--

Model 36.6% Market 22.0% Provisional model gap +14.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs TOR James Wood Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.1% F-- V--

Model 37.1% Market 22.7% Provisional model gap +14.3 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs TOR Keibert Ruiz Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P81.5% F-- V--

Model 81.5% Market 67.7% Provisional model gap +13.7 pts

Open board

Hits · WSH vs TOR Jacob Young Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P87.9% F-- V--

Model 48.0% Market 35.7% Provisional model gap +12.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs TOR Keibert Ruiz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.1% F-- V--

Model 42.1% Market 29.9% Provisional model gap +12.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · WSH vs TOR José Tena Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P42.5% F-- V--

Model 42.5% Market 30.3% Provisional model gap +12.2 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.