Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

HOU at TB

Miguel Ullola vs Drew Rasmussen · 7:10 PM ET

Scheduled 7:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean HOU or TB?

The run projection leans HOU over TB.

Projected runs: HOU 4.4, TB 4.4. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs HOU 4.4 · TB 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.7 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line HOU -1.5 · TB 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.6% · YRFI 50.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 14 Available in 14 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

14 matched rows

Total bases · HOU vs TB Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P30.3% F-- V--

Model 35.0% Market 17.9% Model-market gap +17.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · HOU vs TB Jeremy Peña Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.6% F-- V--

Model 35.6% Market 18.9% Model-market gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · HOU vs TB Jose Altuve Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P41.2% F-- V--

Model 36.6% Market 20.6% Model-market gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · HOU vs TB Yainer Diaz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.2% F-- V--

Model 40.3% Market 26.3% Model-market gap +13.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · HOU vs TB Christian Walker Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.6% F-- V--

Model 40.1% Market 26.3% Model-market gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · HOU vs TB Isaac Paredes Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.1% F-- V--

Model 42.4% Market 29.9% Model-market gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Home runs · HOU vs TB Jeremy Peña Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.0% F12.0% V9.3%

Model 14.8% Market 11.2% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · TB vs HOU Drew Rasmussen Under 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.5% F-- V--

Model 52.5% Market 49.6% Model-market gap +2.9 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · TB vs HOU Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P73.7% F-- V55.3%

Model 73.7% Market 52.4% Provisional model gap +21.3 pts

Open board

Hits · HOU vs TB Yordan Alvarez Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P74.6% F-- V--

Model 74.6% Market 70.6% Provisional model gap +4.0 pts

Open board

Hits · HOU vs TB Jose Altuve Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P27.4% F-- V--

Model 69.5% Market 65.5% Provisional model gap +4.0 pts

Open board

Hits · HOU vs TB Yainer Diaz Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P80.5% F-- V--

Model 80.5% Market 76.7% Provisional model gap +3.8 pts

Open board

Hits · HOU vs TB Isaac Paredes Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P81.9% F-- V--

Model 81.9% Market 79.2% Provisional model gap +2.7 pts

Open board

Hits · HOU vs TB Christian Walker Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P20.6% F-- V--

Model 62.3% Market 60.8% Provisional model gap +1.5 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Houston win contract 38.5% Bid 38c · ask 39c

Tampa Bay win contract 61.5% Bid 61c · ask 62c

First inning run: Yes 46.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.