Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

STL at SF

Mathews, Quinn vs Roupp, Landen · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean STL or SF?

Mithrandir leans SF over STL.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

52.4% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs STL 4.2 · SF 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.5 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line STL 1.5 · SF -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.4% · YRFI 49.6% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 10 Available in 10 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

10 matched rows

Total bases · STL vs SF Alec Burleson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.3% F-- V--

Model 37.3% Market 21.7% Model-market gap +15.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs SF Iván Herrera Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.8% F-- V--

Model 40.8% Market 27.4% Model-market gap +13.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs SF Masyn Winn Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.8% F-- V--

Model 46.8% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs SF Victor Scott II Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.2% F-- V--

Model 47.2% Market 37.0% Model-market gap +10.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs SF Jordan Walker Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P49.3% F-- V--

Model 49.3% Market 39.2% Model-market gap +10.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs SF Pedro Pagés Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.7% F-- V--

Model 50.7% Market 41.7% Model-market gap +9.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · STL vs SF Ramón Urías Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.6% F-- V--

Model 50.6% Market 41.7% Model-market gap +8.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · STL vs SF Alec Burleson Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.0% F13.2% V10.5%

Model 16.6% Market 13.3% Model-market gap +3.3 pts

Open board

Hits · STL vs SF Lars Nootbaar Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 76.4% Market 28.6% Provisional model gap +47.9 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · SF vs STL Landen Roupp Under 5.5 · Healthy / active roster

P67.2% F-- V52.5%

Model 67.2% Market 59.4% Provisional model gap +7.9 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.