Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

HOU at PHI

Wesneski, Hayden vs Painter, Andrew · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read

The question

Does Mithrandir lean HOU or PHI?

Mithrandir leans HOU over PHI.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

61.5% Mirror Monte Carlo

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs HOU 4.5 · PHI 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.1 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line HOU 1.5 · PHI -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.8% · YRFI 51.2% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation

Palantir 21 Available in 21 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

21 matched rows

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Trea Turner Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.7% F-- V--

Model 32.7% Market 14.1% Model-market gap +18.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Bryce Harper Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.7% F-- V--

Model 34.7% Market 17.4% Model-market gap +17.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Alec Bohm Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.1% F-- V--

Model 35.1% Market 18.0% Model-market gap +17.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.9% F-- V--

Model 38.9% Market 24.4% Model-market gap +14.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.8% F-- V--

Model 39.8% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Bryson Stott Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.8% F-- V--

Model 39.8% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU J.t. Realmuto Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.6% F-- V--

Model 40.6% Market 27.0% Model-market gap +13.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs HOU Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.6% F-- V--

Model 55.6% Market 47.6% Model-market gap +8.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs HOU Alec Bohm Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.4% F12.0% V9.1%

Model 18.6% Market 10.7% Model-market gap +7.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs HOU Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P11.9% F13.4% V8.7%

Model 18.9% Market 11.0% Model-market gap +7.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs HOU Trea Turner Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P14.3% F13.2% V13.7%

Model 21.3% Market 14.1% Model-market gap +7.2 pts

Open board

Home runs · PHI vs HOU Bryce Harper Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P15.6% F13.4% V14.9%

Model 22.3% Market 18.7% Model-market gap +3.6 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · HOU vs PHI Hayden Wesneski Over 15.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.6% F-- V--

Model 47.6% Market 40.0% Provisional model gap +7.6 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · HOU vs PHI Hayden Wesneski Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P59.9% F-- V44.7%

Model 59.9% Market 53.3% Provisional model gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Hits · PHI vs HOU Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P81.2% F-- V--

Model 41.3% Market 35.7% Provisional model gap +5.6 pts

Open board

Hits · PHI vs HOU Bryson Stott Under 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P79.8% F-- V--

Model 79.8% Market 75.0% Provisional model gap +4.8 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.