Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

CIN at MIL

Andrew Abbott vs Dustin May · 7:45 PM ET

Scheduled 7:45 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CIN or MIL?

The run projection leans MIL over CIN.

Projected runs: CIN 4.3, MIL 4.5. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CIN 4.3 · MIL 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line CIN 1.5 · MIL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.4% · YRFI 50.6% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 27 Available in 27 player rows

Fangorn 4 Available in 4 player rows

Valinor 4 Available in 4 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

27 matched rows

Total bases · MIL vs CIN William Contreras Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.4% F-- V--

Model 35.1% Market 18.2% Model-market gap +16.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs MIL Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.7% F-- V--

Model 35.9% Market 19.4% Model-market gap +16.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CIN Christian Yelich Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.2% F-- V--

Model 36.2% Market 19.8% Model-market gap +16.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs MIL Tj Friedl Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.1% F-- V--

Model 38.1% Market 23.0% Model-market gap +15.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CIN Brice Turang Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P49.9% F-- V--

Model 39.6% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs MIL Eugenio Suárez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P40.1% F-- V--

Model 40.1% Market 26.3% Model-market gap +13.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs MIL Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.0% F-- V--

Model 42.8% Market 30.3% Model-market gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs MIL Matt McLain Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.5% F-- V--

Model 44.5% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +11.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CIN vs MIL Jj Bleday Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P45.6% F-- V--

Model 44.5% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +11.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CIN Sal Frelick Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.7% F-- V--

Model 46.7% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +11.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · MIL vs CIN Jackson Chourio Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P69.5% F-- V--

Model 61.4% Market 54.5% Model-market gap +6.8 pts

Open board

Home runs · CIN vs MIL Tj Friedl Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.4% F12.0% V10.6%

Model 18.8% Market 12.7% Model-market gap +6.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · MIL vs CIN William Contreras Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.7% F13.2% V12.0%

Model 18.7% Market 12.9% Model-market gap +5.8 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · CIN vs MIL Andrew Abbott Over 15.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.7% F-- V--

Model 47.7% Market 42.8% Model-market gap +4.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · CIN vs MIL Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P13.9% F13.4% V11.8%

Model 19.1% Market 15.0% Model-market gap +4.1 pts

Open board

Home runs · CIN vs MIL Jj Bleday Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.5% F9.7% V9.5%

Model 15.9% Market 12.8% Model-market gap +3.0 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Cincinnati win contract 37.5% Bid 37c · ask 38c

Milwaukee win contract 63.5% Bid 63c · ask 64c

First inning run: Yes 47.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.