Mithrandir Metrics
CIN at LAD 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · 2026-09-08

CIN at LAD

Lodolo, Nick vs Skubal, Tarik · time pending

Pregame model Pregame read
The question

Does Mithrandir lean CIN or LAD?

Mithrandir leans LAD over CIN.

Pregame win probability from 1,500 simulations.

68.2% Mirror Monte Carlo
Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.
Game market read
Projected runs CIN 4.0 · LAD 4.8 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed
Total Model 8.8 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable
Run line CIN 1.5 · LAD -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability
First inning NRFI 48.6% · YRFI 51.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Open full Mirror simulation
Palantir 21 Available in 21 player rows
Fangorn 5 Available in 5 player rows
Valinor 5 Available in 5 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

21 matched rows
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Freddie Freeman Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P32.4% F-- V--
Model 32.4% Market 13.6% Model-market gap +18.8 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Shohei Ohtani Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P32.9% F-- V--
Model 32.9% Market 14.5% Model-market gap +18.4 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Mookie Betts Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P34.3% F-- V--
Model 34.3% Market 16.7% Model-market gap +17.6 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Teoscar Hernández Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P34.5% F-- V--
Model 34.5% Market 17.1% Model-market gap +17.4 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P36.1% F-- V--
Model 36.1% Market 19.6% Model-market gap +16.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · CIN vs LAD Elly De La Cruz Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P37.5% F-- V--
Model 37.5% Market 22.0% Model-market gap +15.5 pts
Open board
Total bases · CIN vs LAD Eugenio Suárez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P39.7% F-- V--
Model 39.7% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.0 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Will Smith Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P40.2% F-- V--
Model 40.2% Market 26.3% Model-market gap +13.9 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Alex Call Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P42.1% F-- V--
Model 42.1% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +12.7 pts
Open board
Total bases · CIN vs LAD Tj Friedl Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P43.1% F-- V--
Model 43.1% Market 30.8% Model-market gap +12.4 pts
Open board
Total bases · CIN vs LAD Tyler Stephenson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P42.6% F-- V--
Model 42.6% Market 30.3% Model-market gap +12.3 pts
Open board
Total bases · CIN vs LAD Matt McLain Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P44.9% F-- V--
Model 44.9% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +11.6 pts
Open board
Total bases · LAD vs CIN Max Muncy Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P46.3% F-- V--
Model 46.3% Market 35.7% Model-market gap +10.6 pts
Open board
Total bases · CIN vs LAD Jj Bleday Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P54.2% F-- V--
Model 54.2% Market 45.5% Model-market gap +8.7 pts
Open board
Home runs · LAD vs CIN Mookie Betts Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P14.3% F13.2% V14.8%
Model 20.2% Market 15.9% Model-market gap +4.4 pts
Open board
Home runs · LAD vs CIN Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster
P14.3% F13.2% V15.2%
Model 19.8% Market 15.6% Model-market gap +4.2 pts
Open board
Kalshi exchange context
No matched exchange market

No current Kalshi row matched this game's date and teams. The page will not carry a stale or cross-date price forward.