Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

PHI at ATL

Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale · 7:15 PM ET

Scheduled 7:15 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean PHI or ATL?

The run projection leans ATL over PHI.

Projected runs: PHI 4.0, ATL 4.6. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs PHI 4.0 · ATL 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.6 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line PHI 1.5 · ATL -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.6% · YRFI 51.4% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 38 Available in 38 player rows

Fangorn 5 Available in 5 player rows

Valinor 5 Available in 5 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

38 matched rows

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Trea Turner Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P28.4% F-- V--

Model 31.9% Market 12.9% Model-market gap +19.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Alec Bohm Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.2% F-- V--

Model 34.5% Market 17.1% Model-market gap +17.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Ronald Acuña Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.6% F-- V--

Model 34.6% Market 17.2% Model-market gap +17.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Matt Olson Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P31.3% F-- V--

Model 35.4% Market 18.7% Model-market gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Austin Riley Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P35.4% F-- V--

Model 36.4% Market 20.4% Model-market gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Bryce Harper Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P34.3% F-- V--

Model 36.6% Market 20.6% Model-market gap +16.0 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Ozzie Albies Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P38.3% F-- V--

Model 36.7% Market 20.8% Model-market gap +15.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Drake Baldwin Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P39.3% F-- V--

Model 37.3% Market 21.7% Model-market gap +15.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Michael Harris II Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.0% F-- V--

Model 38.6% Market 23.8% Model-market gap +14.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL J.t. Realmuto Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P44.9% F-- V--

Model 39.8% Market 25.6% Model-market gap +14.1 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Edmundo Sosa Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.7% F-- V--

Model 40.4% Market 26.7% Model-market gap +13.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.3% F-- V--

Model 40.7% Market 27.0% Model-market gap +13.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · ATL vs PHI Mike Yastrzemski Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P43.9% F-- V--

Model 42.1% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +12.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Bryson Stott Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P64.7% F-- V--

Model 49.2% Market 39.2% Model-market gap +9.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · PHI vs ATL Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P53.8% F-- V--

Model 53.8% Market 45.5% Model-market gap +8.4 pts

Open board

Home runs · ATL vs PHI Ozzie Albies Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.4% F12.0% V14.5%

Model 20.1% Market 13.5% Model-market gap +6.6 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Atlanta win contract 63.5% Bid 63c · ask 64c

Philadelphia win contract 36.5% Bid 36c · ask 37c

First inning run: Yes 45.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.