Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-05-21 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Lineups not posted
The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 7 |
11.8%Valinor | 8.5%market | +3.0pp |
P
4.0
F
11.4
V
11.8
|
7.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5 |
16.5%Valinor | 13.5%market | +2.5pp |
P
12.3
F
14.2
V
16.5
|
4.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 03 | Lineup pending | CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 6 |
13.3%Valinor | 10.6%market | +2.3pp |
P
7.9
F
4.7
V
13.3
|
8.6pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 810 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
12.5%Valinor | 9.9%market | +2.2pp |
P
5.4
F
13.4
V
12.5
|
8.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5 |
15.8%Valinor | 13.2%market | +2.1pp |
P
9.8
F
11.1
V
15.8
|
6.0pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 630 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 4 |
15.4%Valinor | 12.9%market | +1.9pp |
P
8.0
F
13.4
V
15.4
|
7.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 645 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3 |
13.5%Valinor | 11.7%market | +1.4pp |
P
10.9
F
17.2
V
13.5
|
6.3pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 5 |
14.7%Valinor | 13.5%market | +0.7pp |
P
10.3
F
13.6
V
14.7
|
4.4pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 2 |
11.1%Valinor | 10.1%market | +0.6pp |
P
3.5
F
14.2
V
11.1
|
10.8pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
13.7%Valinor | 12.7%market | +0.4pp |
P
8.6
F
14.2
V
13.7
|
5.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 6 |
11.8%Valinor | 11.3%market | +0.1pp |
P
10.0
F
14.2
V
11.8
|
4.2pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 755 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IL10
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7 |
10.4%Valinor | 10.0%market | +0.1pp |
P
7.1
F
9.1
V
10.4
|
3.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 870 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
OUT
|
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 4 |
14.2%Valinor | 14.2%market | -0.5pp |
P
10.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
4.0pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Yoán Moncada
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 6 |
12.8%Valinor | 12.9%market | -0.5pp |
P
7.4
F
17.2
V
12.8
|
9.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 650 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
IL10
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
13.0%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.6pp |
P
12.1
F
15.7
V
13.0
|
3.6pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 635 avg 3 books |
| 16 | Lineup pending | TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2 |
16.9%Valinor | 17.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
14.7
F
17.9
V
16.9
|
3.2pp | 0.997xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Mike Yastrzemski
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6 |
13.2%Valinor | 13.6%market | -0.8pp |
P
14.5
F
15.7
V
13.2
|
2.5pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 610 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
George Springer
TOR
Lineup pending
|
TOR vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1 |
16.9%Valinor | 17.9%market | -1.7pp |
P
15.8
F
17.9
V
16.9
|
2.1pp | 0.997xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
19.1%Valinor | 23.6%market | -5.2pp |
P
14.6
F
17.9
V
19.1
|
4.5pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 310 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Nick Kurtz
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1 |
14.7%Valinor | 26.5%market | -12.7pp |
P
10.5
F
11.1
V
14.7
|
4.2pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 3 |
16.0%Valinor | 10.5%market | +5.1pp |
P
2.9
F
4.7
V
16.0
|
13.0pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 5 |
14.9%Valinor | 9.7%market | +4.9pp |
P
4.3
F
11.4
V
14.9
|
10.6pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 900 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
12.3%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.3pp |
P
1.6
F
4.7
V
12.3
|
10.7pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 1 |
17.8%Valinor | 13.3%market | +4.0pp |
P
12.3
F
15.7
V
17.8
|
5.5pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs ATLSpencer Strider · slot 1 |
12.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | +4.0pp |
P
1.8
F
9.1
V
12.0
|
10.2pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Steven Kwan
CLE
Lineup pending
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 2 |
12.5%Valinor | 8.7%market | +3.5pp |
P
4.0
F
10.3
V
12.5
|
8.5pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
James Wood
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs NYMDavid Peterson · slot 2 |
19.9%Valinor | 15.9%market | +3.3pp |
P
14.3
F
17.2
V
19.9
|
5.5pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 505 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 3 |
17.6%Valinor | 16.4%market | +0.5pp |
P
5.6
F
13.4
V
17.6
|
12.0pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
IL10
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6 |
9.4%Valinor | 8.7%market | +0.3pp |
P
1.9
F
0.0
V
9.4
|
9.4pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Jahmai Jones
DET
Lineup pending
|
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2 |
14.4%Valinor | 13.6%market | +0.2pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
14.4
|
4.7pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 605 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Austin Riley
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4 |
17.0%Valinor | 16.2%market | +0.2pp |
P
9.5
F
13.6
V
17.0
|
7.5pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 5 |
16.0%Valinor | 15.2%market | +0.2pp |
P
10.4
F
14.2
V
16.0
|
5.6pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Bo Naylor
CLE
OUT
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 4 |
14.0%Valinor | 13.4%market | +0.1pp |
P
11.5
F
14.2
V
14.0
|
2.7pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 620 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
IL10
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4 |
16.7%Valinor | 16.5%market | -0.4pp |
P
13.2
F
17.2
V
16.7
|
4.0pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Riley Greene
DET
Lineup pending
|
DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 4 |
16.6%Valinor | 16.8%market | -0.8pp |
P
10.1
F
15.5
V
16.6
|
6.5pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IL10
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
14.8%Valinor | 15.6%market | -1.3pp |
P
10.4
F
17.2
V
14.8
|
6.8pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 520 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5 |
13.4%Valinor | 14.2%market | -1.3pp |
P
13.7
F
17.2
V
13.4
|
3.8pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Kyle Manzardo
CLE
Lineup pending
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 3 |
16.3%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.4pp |
P
12.6
F
14.2
V
16.3
|
3.7pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 39 | Lineup pending | DET vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5 |
16.0%Valinor | 17.1%market | -1.7pp |
P
13.0
F
15.7
V
16.0
|
3.0pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
17.4%Valinor | 18.8%market | -2.0pp |
P
12.3
F
15.5
V
17.4
|
5.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 1 |
15.2%Valinor | 16.7%market | -2.1pp |
P
13.9
F
17.9
V
15.2
|
4.0pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.1%market | -2.6pp |
P
12.3
F
17.2
V
13.0
|
4.9pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 4 |
17.1%Valinor | 19.1%market | -2.7pp |
P
15.8
F
17.2
V
17.1
|
1.5pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Francisco Lindor
NYM
IL10
|
NYM vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2 |
16.9%Valinor | 18.9%market | -2.7pp |
P
14.7
F
14.2
V
16.9
|
2.7pp | 0.905xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
José Ramírez
CLE
Lineup pending
|
CLE vs DETCasey Mize · slot 1 |
17.2%Valinor | 19.9%market | -3.5pp |
P
14.9
F
15.5
V
17.2
|
2.3pp | 0.862xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs ATHLuis Severino · slot 2 |
15.8%Valinor | 18.8%market | -3.7pp |
P
15.6
F
17.9
V
15.8
|
2.3pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
15.6%Valinor | 18.9%market | -4.0pp |
P
15.1
F
17.9
V
15.6
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Matt Olson
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
16.3%Valinor | 21.2%market | -5.7pp |
P
14.2
F
15.5
V
16.3
|
2.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 4 |
14.9%Valinor | 19.9%market | -5.7pp |
P
14.9
F
14.2
V
14.9
|
0.7pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs STLDustin May · slot 2 |
14.3%Valinor | 20.5%market | -7.0pp |
P
9.4
F
13.4
V
14.3
|
4.9pp | 0.875xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Shea Langeliers
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 3 |
13.9%Valinor | 20.3%market | -7.1pp |
P
10.0
F
13.6
V
13.9
|
3.9pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Brent Rooker
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2 |
14.1%Valinor | 21.0%market | -7.6pp |
P
10.8
F
14.2
V
14.1
|
3.5pp | 0.971xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 360 avg 3 books |
Data context
780 sample flagsStatus1592roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.