Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
80
Matched
312
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
STL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
22.3%Fangorn 13.1%market +9.2pp
P 19.8
F 22.3
V 14.4
7.9pp 1.211xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
02 IN
MIL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 8.7%market +6.8pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 9.6
5.9pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
03 Lineup pending
MIL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
22.3%Fangorn 15.5%market +6.7pp
P 18.2
F 22.3
V 12.5
9.7pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
04 IN
AZ vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 9.3%market +6.2pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 11.4
4.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
05 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.6pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 9.4
7.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 11.0%market +4.5pp
P 11.8
F 15.5
V 9.3
6.2pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
07 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 11.2%market +4.4pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 12.2
3.3pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
08 IN
MIL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
17.0%Fangorn 12.9%market +4.1pp
P 16.6
F 17.0
V 11.6
5.4pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
09 IN
AZ vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
21.5%Fangorn 17.5%market +4.0pp
P 17.9
F 21.5
V 14.6
6.8pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
10 IN
NYM vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 11.7%market +3.8pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 10.6
4.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
11 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
13.4%Fangorn 9.8%market +3.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 7.8
5.5pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
MIA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
13.4%Fangorn 10.1%market +3.3pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
0.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
13 IN
CLE vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
11.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +2.7pp
P 9.1
F 11.4
V 12.4
3.4pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
14 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.5pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.3
3.2pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 13.0%market +2.5pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 15.1
1.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
16 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
13.4%Fangorn 10.9%market +2.5pp
P 12.1
F 13.4
V 7.7
5.7pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
17 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 6
14.9%Fangorn 12.4%market +2.5pp
P 12.9
F 14.9
V 10.2
4.7pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
18 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
15.5%Fangorn 13.5%market +2.1pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.8pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
19 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 7
11.4%Fangorn 9.6%market +1.8pp
P 10.4
F 11.4
V 8.7
2.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
20 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
15.5%Fangorn 13.8%market +1.7pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 12.5
3.4pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
21
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.5pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 10.3
1.9pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
22 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
17.0%Fangorn 15.6%market +1.3pp
P 17.4
F 17.0
V 13.5
3.9pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
23 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 14.4%market +1.2pp
P 17.3
F 15.5
V 12.8
4.4pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
24
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 14.7%market +0.8pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.0
3.5pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
25 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 14.1%market +0.8pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 12.7
3.0pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
26 IN
BOS vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
12.2%Fangorn 11.8%market +0.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 10.4
1.9pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
27 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
28 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
14.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -0.8pp
P 15.4
F 14.9
V 16.6
1.6pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 13.1%market -0.9pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 9.2
5.1pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
30 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.2pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 13.3
1.2pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
31 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 17.0%market -1.4pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
32 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
14.9%Fangorn 16.7%market -1.8pp
P 12.9
F 14.9
V 12.9
2.0pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
33 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
12.2%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 15.7
3.5pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
34 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.0pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 19.3
4.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
35 IN
KC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
11.4%Fangorn 13.9%market -2.5pp
P 10.2
F 11.4
V 16.9
6.7pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
36 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 18.0%market -2.5pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 13.5
3.2pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
37 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.6
V 18.0
4.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
38 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 11.4%market -4.0pp
P 13.2
F 7.4
V 11.8
5.8pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 775 avg 3 books
39 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
11.4%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.8pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 15.2
3.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
40 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
22.3%Fangorn 20.9%market +1.4pp
P 16.5
F 22.3
V 13.2
9.1pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
41 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 13.1%market +0.5pp
P 12.4
F 13.6
V 10.6
3.0pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
42 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 16.0%market -0.5pp
P 11.8
F 15.5
V 14.2
3.8pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
43 IN
MIA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 5.8
F 7.4
V 10.8
4.9pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 5.9
F 7.4
V 11.3
5.5pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 5.1
F 7.4
V 11.1
6.0pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -0.6pp
P 7.1
F 7.4
V 12.8
5.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
NYY vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
7.4%Fangorn 8.3%market -0.9pp
P 7.7
F 7.4
V 11.6
4.1pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1100 avg 3 books
48 IN
NYM vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 4
15.5%Fangorn 17.1%market -1.6pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
49 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 17.2%market -1.7pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
50 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
13.6%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.4pp
P 12.0
F 13.6
V 15.3
3.3pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
51 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 18.0%market -2.5pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 10.9
4.8pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
52 IN
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 17.5%market -2.6pp
P 12.7
F 14.9
V 11.9
3.0pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
53 IN
BOS vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
13.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.7pp
P 12.9
F 13.6
V 14.0
1.0pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
54 IN
BOS vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
12.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.7pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 13.9
1.6pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
55 IN
KC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 18.7%market -3.8pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 18.4
3.6pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
56 IN
CLE vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
13.6%Fangorn 17.5%market -4.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 13.7
1.0pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
57 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 19.6%market -4.1pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 14.3
1.8pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
58 Lineup pending
NYY vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
13.4%Fangorn 17.9%market -4.5pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 14.8
2.5pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
59 IN
NYM vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 19.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 15.1
0.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 7
3.4%Fangorn 8.0%market -4.6pp
P 5.7
F 3.4
V 6.6
3.1pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
13.6%Fangorn 18.2%market -4.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.6
V 16.0
2.4pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
62 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.7pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 15.1
3.6pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
63 IN
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
13.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.6
V 11.9
2.0pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
64 IN
CLE vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 20.4%market -4.9pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.2
0.9pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
65 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
13.6%Fangorn 18.9%market -5.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.6
V 15.4
1.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
66 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3
13.6%Fangorn 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 20.1
6.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
67 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 4
14.9%Fangorn 20.4%market -5.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
68 IN
AZ vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
15.5%Fangorn 21.1%market -5.5pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 15.6
0.8pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
69 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -5.9pp
P 13.6
F 14.9
V 16.9
3.2pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
70 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
11.6%Fangorn 17.7%market -6.1pp
P 12.3
F 11.6
V 11.9
0.7pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
71 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.1pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 18.9
6.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
72 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
14.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -6.8pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 15.8
0.9pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
73
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6
12.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.0pp
P 11.6
F 12.2
V 14.6
3.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
74 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
12.2%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.0pp
P 11.0
F 12.2
V 12.3
1.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
75 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.2
V 12.3
0.4pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 2
12.2%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 17.0
4.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
77 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
15.5%Fangorn 27.0%market -11.5pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.4pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
78 Lineup pending
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
11.6%Fangorn 23.3%market -11.7pp
P 12.5
F 11.6
V 13.8
2.2pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
79 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
12.2%Fangorn 26.3%market -14.1pp
P 16.5
F 12.2
V 14.0
4.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
80 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 1
15.5%Fangorn 29.8%market -14.3pp
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 23.3
9.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2308roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.