Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
80
Matched
312
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-26 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
CLE vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 2
12.4%Valinor 8.7%market +3.4pp
P 9.1
F 11.4
V 12.4
3.4pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02 IN
KC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 5
16.9%Valinor 13.3%market +3.1pp
P 10.2
F 11.4
V 16.9
6.7pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
03 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 2
19.3%Valinor 16.2%market +2.5pp
P 16.0
F 14.9
V 19.3
4.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
04 Lineup pending
MIA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
12.6%Valinor 10.1%market +2.1pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
0.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 5
16.1%Valinor 13.5%market +2.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 16.1
2.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 5
18.0%Valinor 15.4%market +2.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.6
V 18.0
4.4pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
07 IN
AZ vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
11.4%Valinor 9.3%market +1.7pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 11.4
4.6pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
08 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
15.7%Valinor 13.5%market +1.7pp
P 13.1
F 12.2
V 15.7
3.5pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 3
15.1%Valinor 13.0%market +1.6pp
P 14.0
F 15.5
V 15.1
1.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
10 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
16.6%Valinor 15.0%market +0.9pp
P 15.4
F 14.9
V 16.6
1.6pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
11 IN
STL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
14.4%Valinor 13.1%market +0.8pp
P 19.8
F 22.3
V 14.4
7.9pp 1.211xHR pf Neutralweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
12 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
12.2%Valinor 11.2%market +0.6pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 12.2
3.3pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
13 IN
MIL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
9.6%Valinor 8.7%market +0.6pp
P 13.8
F 15.5
V 9.6
5.9pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
14 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
11.8%Valinor 10.9%market +0.5pp
P 13.2
F 7.4
V 11.8
5.8pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 785 avg 3 books
15
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
10.3%Valinor 10.7%market -0.9pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 10.3
1.9pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
16 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
15.2%Valinor 15.7%market -1.1pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 15.2
3.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
17 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
12.3%Valinor 13.0%market -1.2pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.3
3.2pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
18 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 7
8.7%Valinor 9.7%market -1.4pp
P 10.4
F 11.4
V 8.7
2.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
19 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
13.3%Valinor 14.3%market -1.5pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 13.3
1.2pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
20 IN
NYM vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
10.6%Valinor 11.7%market -1.6pp
P 14.1
F 15.5
V 10.6
4.9pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
21 IN
BOS vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1
10.4%Valinor 11.8%market -1.8pp
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 10.4
1.9pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
22 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
12.5%Valinor 14.0%market -1.9pp
P 15.9
F 15.5
V 12.5
3.4pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
23 IN
MIL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
11.6%Valinor 13.5%market -2.0pp
P 16.6
F 17.0
V 11.6
5.4pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
24 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6
9.4%Valinor 11.0%market -2.1pp
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 9.4
7.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
25 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
12.7%Valinor 14.3%market -2.1pp
P 11.9
F 14.9
V 12.7
3.0pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
26 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
9.3%Valinor 11.0%market -2.1pp
P 11.8
F 15.5
V 9.3
6.2pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
27 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 14.5%market -2.2pp
P 17.3
F 15.5
V 12.8
4.4pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
28 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 13.6%market -2.3pp
P 13.6
F 15.5
V 11.8
3.8pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
29 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
7.8%Valinor 9.9%market -2.5pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 7.8
5.5pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
30 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 6
10.2%Valinor 12.4%market -2.7pp
P 12.9
F 14.9
V 10.2
4.7pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
31 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 16.0%market -3.0pp
P 17.4
F 17.0
V 13.5
3.9pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
32
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
12.0%Valinor 14.9%market -3.4pp
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 12.0
3.5pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
33 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 16.4%market -3.5pp
P 15.8
F 15.5
V 13.5
2.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
34 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 6
7.7%Valinor 10.9%market -3.6pp
P 12.1
F 13.4
V 7.7
5.7pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
MIL vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
12.5%Valinor 15.7%market -3.8pp
P 18.2
F 22.3
V 12.5
9.7pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
36 IN
AZ vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
14.6%Valinor 17.9%market -3.9pp
P 17.9
F 21.5
V 14.6
6.8pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
37 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
12.9%Valinor 16.2%market -3.9pp
P 12.9
F 14.9
V 12.9
2.0pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
38 Lineup pending
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
9.2%Valinor 13.1%market -3.9pp
P 14.2
F 12.2
V 9.2
5.1pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
39 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
13.5%Valinor 17.5%market -4.7pp
P 16.7
F 15.5
V 13.5
3.2pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
40 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 1
23.3%Valinor 29.3%market -7.0pp
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 23.3
9.0pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
41 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 26.5%market -13.2pp
P 14.8
F 15.5
V 14.2
1.4pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
42 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 7.1
F 7.4
V 12.8
5.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
NYY vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
11.6%Valinor 7.9%market +3.5pp
P 7.7
F 7.4
V 11.6
4.1pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
44 IN
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
11.3%Valinor 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 5.9
F 7.4
V 11.3
5.5pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +3.1pp
P 5.1
F 7.4
V 11.1
6.0pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
MIA vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
10.8%Valinor 7.7%market +2.8pp
P 5.8
F 7.4
V 10.8
4.9pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 3
20.1%Valinor 18.1%market +1.3pp
P 14.7
F 13.6
V 20.1
6.5pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
48 IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 4
18.9%Valinor 17.5%market +0.8pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 18.9
6.7pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
49 IN
KC vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 4
18.4%Valinor 18.2%market -0.5pp
P 14.7
F 14.9
V 18.4
3.6pp 1.099xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
50 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
15.3%Valinor 15.5%market -0.7pp
P 12.0
F 13.6
V 15.3
3.3pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 7
6.6%Valinor 7.7%market -1.4pp
P 5.7
F 3.4
V 6.6
3.1pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
15.1%Valinor 16.4%market -1.9pp
P 11.5
F 12.2
V 15.1
3.6pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
53 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 15.6%market -2.0pp
P 11.8
F 15.5
V 14.2
3.8pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
54 IN
BOS vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
13.9%Valinor 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.2
V 13.9
1.6pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
55 IN
BOS vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4
14.0%Valinor 15.7%market -2.3pp
P 12.9
F 13.6
V 14.0
1.0pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
56 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 1
14.9%Valinor 16.7%market -2.3pp
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 14.9
1.2pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
16.0%Valinor 17.7%market -2.3pp
P 14.0
F 13.6
V 16.0
2.4pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
58 IN
NYM vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 16.5%market -2.5pp
P 13.9
F 15.5
V 14.6
1.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
59 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 5
10.6%Valinor 13.2%market -3.1pp
P 12.4
F 13.6
V 10.6
3.0pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
NYY vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 17.4%market -3.2pp
P 12.3
F 13.4
V 14.8
2.5pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
61 IN
SD vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
15.4%Valinor 18.4%market -3.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.6
V 15.4
1.8pp 1.040xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
62 IN
CLE vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
13.7%Valinor 17.1%market -4.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.6
V 13.7
1.0pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
63 IN
HOU vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 2
16.9%Valinor 20.3%market -4.2pp
P 13.6
F 14.9
V 16.9
3.2pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
64 Lineup pending
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 2
17.0%Valinor 20.5%market -4.3pp
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 17.0
4.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
65 IN
NYM vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 18.9%market -4.5pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 15.1
0.6pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
66 IN
PIT vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 4
16.0%Valinor 19.9%market -4.7pp
P 15.5
F 14.9
V 16.0
1.1pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
67
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs NYMFreddy Peralta · slot 6
14.6%Valinor 18.8%market -4.8pp
P 11.6
F 12.2
V 14.6
3.1pp 1.004xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
68 IN
CLE vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
15.2%Valinor 19.9%market -5.5pp
P 16.0
F 15.5
V 15.2
0.9pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
69 IN
PHI vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 14.3
1.8pp 1.066xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
70 IN
AZ vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
15.6%Valinor 20.5%market -5.7pp
P 16.4
F 15.5
V 15.6
0.8pp 1.132xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
71 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
11.9%Valinor 17.1%market -5.8pp
P 12.3
F 11.6
V 11.9
0.7pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
72 IN
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
11.9%Valinor 17.1%market -5.8pp
P 12.7
F 14.9
V 11.9
3.0pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
73 IN
ATL vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
15.8%Valinor 21.2%market -6.2pp
P 15.3
F 14.9
V 15.8
0.9pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
74 IN
TOR vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
11.9%Valinor 17.9%market -6.7pp
P 13.9
F 13.6
V 11.9
2.0pp 0.936xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
75 IN
TEX vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
12.3%Valinor 18.8%market -7.1pp
P 11.0
F 12.2
V 12.3
1.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
76 IN
COL vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 2
10.9%Valinor 17.4%market -7.2pp
P 15.6
F 15.5
V 10.9
4.8pp 1.189xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
77 IN
SF vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
12.3%Valinor 20.3%market -8.8pp
P 12.7
F 12.2
V 12.3
0.4pp 0.950xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
78 IN
MIN vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
13.2%Valinor 21.5%market -9.1pp
P 16.5
F 22.3
V 13.2
9.1pp 1.219xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
CWS vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 22.7%market -9.7pp
P 12.5
F 11.6
V 13.8
2.2pp 1.097xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
80 IN
SEA vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
14.0%Valinor 25.8%market -12.7pp
P 16.5
F 12.2
V 14.0
4.3pp 1.162xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books

Data context

780 sample flags
Status2308roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.