Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-07-31 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
300
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-31 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
KC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
18.3%Valinor 12.5%market +5.3pp
P 10.9
F 12.3
V 18.3
7.4pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 5
18.0%Valinor 13.5%market +4.0pp
P 13.5
F 12.3
V 18.0
5.7pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
03 IN
MIA vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 10.1%market +3.8pp
P 10.7
F 12.3
V 14.3
3.6pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
04 IN
NYY vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
11.0%Valinor 7.9%market +2.9pp
P 10.1
F 10.8
V 11.0
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
05 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 3
16.2%Valinor 13.0%market +2.7pp
P 13.8
F 14.0
V 16.2
2.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
06 IN
KC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
19.7%Valinor 17.2%market +1.9pp
P 16.0
F 14.0
V 19.7
5.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
07 IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
14.6%Valinor 12.3%market +1.8pp
P 10.1
F 12.3
V 14.6
4.5pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
08 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 2
14.8%Valinor 14.4%market -0.1pp
P 14.7
F 14.7
V 14.8
0.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
09 IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
9.5%Valinor 9.5%market -0.4pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 9.5
3.6pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
10
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
13.0%Valinor 13.0%market -0.4pp
P 11.1
F 9.4
V 13.0
3.6pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
9.7%Valinor 9.9%market -0.7pp
P 10.9
F 12.3
V 9.7
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
12 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
12.7%Valinor 13.3%market -0.7pp
P 14.5
F 14.7
V 12.7
2.1pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
13 IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
15.1%Valinor 15.3%market -0.8pp
P 15.2
F 14.0
V 15.1
1.1pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
14 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
14.0%Valinor 14.3%market -0.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 14.0
1.3pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
15
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
10.3%Valinor 10.7%market -0.8pp
P 11.0
F 12.3
V 10.3
2.0pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
16 IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
11.7%Valinor 12.6%market -0.9pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 11.7
0.5pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
17 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
15.0%Valinor 15.3%market -0.9pp
P 15.6
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
18 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 13.6%market -1.0pp
P 12.1
F 12.3
V 13.2
1.0pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
19 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
13.7%Valinor 14.3%market -1.1pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 13.7
2.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
20 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
10.4%Valinor 11.2%market -1.2pp
P 14.0
F 14.0
V 10.4
3.6pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 760 avg 3 books
21 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
13.8%Valinor 14.5%market -1.3pp
P 16.1
F 14.0
V 13.8
2.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
22 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
10.1%Valinor 11.0%market -1.3pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 10.1
5.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
23 IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
11.7%Valinor 13.1%market -1.4pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 11.7
0.9pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
24 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 11.0%market -1.6pp
P 11.6
F 13.7
V 9.9
3.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
25 Lineup pending
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
9.6%Valinor 10.9%market -1.7pp
P 10.6
F 12.3
V 9.6
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
26 IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
10.4%Valinor 11.7%market -1.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
27 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
12.6%Valinor 14.0%market -1.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 12.6
1.2pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
28 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
14.5%Valinor 16.0%market -2.0pp
P 16.2
F 14.0
V 14.5
2.2pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
29 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
11.0%Valinor 13.0%market -2.0pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 11.0
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
30
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 15.0%market -2.1pp
P 12.7
F 12.9
V 13.4
0.7pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
31 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
13.2%Valinor 14.8%market -2.1pp
P 12.2
F 13.0
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
32 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 15.5%market -2.2pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
33
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
13.2%Valinor 15.0%market -2.3pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 13.2
1.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
34 Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
8.1%Valinor 10.0%market -2.3pp
P 9.4
F 12.3
V 8.1
4.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
35 IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
10.2%Valinor 12.5%market -2.3pp
P 11.4
F 12.9
V 10.2
2.8pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
36 IN
STL vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
11.1%Valinor 13.3%market -2.7pp
P 12.5
F 13.7
V 11.1
2.7pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
37
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
11.8%Valinor 14.1%market -2.8pp
P 15.8
F 14.0
V 11.8
4.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
38 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
8.4%Valinor 11.1%market -3.2pp
P 13.9
F 10.6
V 8.4
5.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
39 IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
9.8%Valinor 13.0%market -3.7pp
P 13.7
F 14.0
V 9.8
4.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
40 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 13.1%market -3.7pp
P 12.9
F 13.0
V 9.9
3.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
41 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
14.4%Valinor 25.8%market -12.3pp
P 14.4
F 11.9
V 14.4
2.5pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
42 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
14.8%Valinor 26.5%market -12.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
43 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
16.4%Valinor 28.4%market -13.0pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
44 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
14.4%Valinor 7.7%market +6.4pp
P 6.7
F 10.2
V 14.4
7.7pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 1
14.1%Valinor 7.7%market +6.2pp
P 7.2
F 10.2
V 14.1
6.9pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
MIA vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 1
12.0%Valinor 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 5.1
F 6.3
V 12.0
6.9pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
10.2%Valinor 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 4.6
F 6.3
V 10.2
5.7pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
12.9%Valinor 10.5%market +2.0pp
P 8.7
F 4.5
V 12.9
8.4pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
49 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6
7.1%Valinor 7.7%market -0.9pp
P 9.4
F 12.9
V 7.1
5.9pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
50 IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 15.2%market -1.0pp
P 9.1
F 11.9
V 14.8
5.6pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
51 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
6.7%Valinor 7.7%market -1.3pp
P 2.9
F 0.0
V 6.7
6.7pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 IN
STL vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2
11.0%Valinor 12.5%market -2.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 11.0
3.2pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
53 IN
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 17.1%market -2.7pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
54 IN
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
14.7%Valinor 16.8%market -2.7pp
P 14.3
F 14.0
V 14.7
0.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
55 IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
14.3%Valinor 16.5%market -2.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 14.3
1.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
56 Lineup pending
NYY vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 17.4%market -3.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
57 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
13.0%Valinor 15.8%market -3.4pp
P 13.7
F 12.5
V 13.0
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
58 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 16.4%market -3.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 13.4
0.3pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
59 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
13.7%Valinor 16.8%market -3.7pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 13.7
1.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
60 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
13.1%Valinor 16.2%market -3.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.0
V 13.1
0.8pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
61 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
14.4%Valinor 17.7%market -3.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.0
V 14.4
1.4pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
62 Lineup pending
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 2
16.8%Valinor 20.5%market -4.5pp
P 12.8
F 12.3
V 16.8
4.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
63 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 19.1%market -4.8pp
P 15.9
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
64 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 17.5%market -4.8pp
P 14.5
F 13.0
V 13.4
1.5pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
65 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 4
15.7%Valinor 19.9%market -4.9pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
66 IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
14.7%Valinor 18.9%market -4.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.0
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
67 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
13.7%Valinor 18.2%market -5.1pp
P 15.7
F 14.0
V 13.7
1.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
68 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
8.6%Valinor 13.4%market -5.3pp
P 12.0
F 10.8
V 8.6
3.4pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
69 IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
13.2%Valinor 17.9%market -5.3pp
P 15.3
F 14.0
V 13.2
2.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
70 IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
16.6%Valinor 21.2%market -5.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.3
V 16.6
4.3pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
71 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
12.9%Valinor 17.7%market -5.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.3
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
72 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 18.6%market -5.9pp
P 12.2
F 12.3
V 13.3
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
73 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 20.3%market -5.9pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 15.1
1.4pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 18.8%market -6.1pp
P 10.1
F 12.0
V 13.3
3.1pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
75 IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
11.7%Valinor 17.4%market -6.3pp
P 13.9
F 14.0
V 11.7
2.3pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
76 IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
14.1%Valinor 20.5%market -7.2pp
P 13.9
F 13.7
V 14.1
0.3pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
77 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
14.7%Valinor 22.0%market -8.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 14.7
1.0pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
78 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
13.6%Valinor 21.5%market -8.6pp
P 12.9
F 14.0
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
79 IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
11.7%Valinor 22.7%market -11.9pp
P 11.0
F 10.8
V 11.7
0.8pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2464roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.