Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
79
Matched
300
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-07-31 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 3
13.0%Fangorn 9.3%market +3.7pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 9.5
3.6pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
02 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6
14.0%Fangorn 11.0%market +3.1pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 10.1
5.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
03 IN
NYY vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1
10.8%Fangorn 7.9%market +3.0pp
P 10.1
F 10.8
V 11.0
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1130 avg 3 books
04 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
14.0%Fangorn 11.2%market +2.9pp
P 14.0
F 14.0
V 10.4
3.6pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
05 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
13.7%Fangorn 11.0%market +2.8pp
P 11.6
F 13.7
V 9.9
3.8pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
06 Lineup pending
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
12.3%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.5pp
P 10.9
F 12.3
V 9.7
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
12.3%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.5pp
P 9.4
F 12.3
V 8.1
4.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
08 IN
MIA vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 2
12.3%Fangorn 10.1%market +2.2pp
P 10.7
F 12.3
V 14.3
3.6pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
09 IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 11.7%market +2.0pp
P 13.2
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 3
14.7%Fangorn 12.7%market +2.0pp
P 14.5
F 14.7
V 12.7
2.1pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
11
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 5
12.3%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.6pp
P 11.0
F 12.3
V 10.3
2.0pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
12 Lineup pending
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6
12.3%Fangorn 10.9%market +1.5pp
P 10.6
F 12.3
V 9.6
2.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
13 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 3
14.0%Fangorn 13.0%market +1.1pp
P 13.8
F 14.0
V 16.2
2.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14 IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
14.0%Fangorn 13.0%market +1.1pp
P 13.7
F 14.0
V 9.8
4.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
15 IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
12.9%Fangorn 11.9%market +1.0pp
P 11.4
F 12.9
V 10.2
2.8pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
16 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 4
13.0%Fangorn 12.4%market +0.6pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 11.0
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
17 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 2
14.7%Fangorn 14.2%market +0.5pp
P 14.7
F 14.7
V 14.8
0.2pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
18 IN
STL vs TORDylan Cease · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.5pp
P 12.5
F 13.7
V 11.1
2.7pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
19 IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
12.3%Fangorn 12.8%market -0.5pp
P 10.1
F 12.3
V 14.6
4.5pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
20
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
14.0%Fangorn 14.6%market -0.6pp
P 15.8
F 14.0
V 11.8
4.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
21 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 6
13.0%Fangorn 13.6%market -0.6pp
P 12.9
F 13.0
V 9.9
3.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
22 IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
12.0%Fangorn 12.6%market -0.6pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 11.7
0.5pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
23 IN
KC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 5
12.3%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.7pp
P 10.9
F 12.3
V 18.3
7.4pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
24 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 14.5%market -0.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 12.6
1.2pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
25 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 3
10.6%Fangorn 11.6%market -0.9pp
P 13.9
F 10.6
V 8.4
5.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 765 avg 3 books
26 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1
14.0%Fangorn 15.0%market -1.0pp
P 16.1
F 14.0
V 13.8
2.3pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
27 IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4
11.9%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 11.7
0.9pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
28 IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
14.0%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.7pp
P 15.2
F 14.0
V 15.1
1.1pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
29 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
14.0%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.7pp
P 15.6
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
30 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
13.0%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.0
V 14.0
1.3pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
31 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 14.8%market -1.8pp
P 11.0
F 13.0
V 13.7
2.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
32 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 5
12.3%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.8pp
P 13.5
F 12.3
V 18.0
5.7pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
33
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 15.5%market -1.8pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 13.2
1.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
34 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 5
12.3%Fangorn 14.2%market -1.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.3
V 13.2
1.0pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
35 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 15.3%market -2.2pp
P 12.2
F 13.0
V 13.2
0.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
36 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3
14.0%Fangorn 16.4%market -2.3pp
P 16.2
F 14.0
V 14.5
2.2pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
37
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
12.9%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.9
V 13.4
0.7pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
38 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 16.0%market -3.0pp
P 12.1
F 13.0
V 13.8
1.7pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
39 IN
KC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano · slot 4
14.0%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.0pp
P 16.0
F 14.0
V 19.7
5.7pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
40
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
9.4%Fangorn 13.4%market -4.0pp
P 11.1
F 9.4
V 13.0
3.6pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
41 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 6
12.9%Fangorn 7.7%market +5.2pp
P 9.4
F 12.9
V 7.1
5.9pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
10.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.5pp
P 6.7
F 10.2
V 14.4
7.7pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 1
10.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +2.5pp
P 7.2
F 10.2
V 14.1
6.9pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44 IN
STL vs TORDylan Cease · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 12.5%market +1.2pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 11.0
3.2pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIA vs NYMKodai Senga · slot 1
6.3%Fangorn 8.0%market -1.7pp
P 5.1
F 6.3
V 12.0
6.9pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
46 IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
6.3%Fangorn 8.0%market -1.7pp
P 4.6
F 6.3
V 10.2
5.7pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
47 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 7
10.8%Fangorn 13.9%market -3.1pp
P 12.0
F 10.8
V 8.6
3.4pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
48 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.7
V 13.4
0.3pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
49 IN
WSH vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
14.0%Fangorn 17.4%market -3.3pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 13.7
1.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
50 IN
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
14.0%Fangorn 17.4%market -3.3pp
P 14.3
F 14.0
V 14.7
0.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
51 IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 17.1%market -3.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.7
V 14.3
1.4pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
52 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 5
13.0%Fangorn 16.7%market -3.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.0
V 13.1
0.8pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
53 IN
DET vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
14.0%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.7pp
P 15.5
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
54 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
12.5%Fangorn 16.4%market -3.9pp
P 13.7
F 12.5
V 13.0
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
55 IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
11.9%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.9pp
P 9.1
F 11.9
V 14.8
5.6pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
56 IN
COL vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
14.0%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.0pp
P 13.9
F 14.0
V 11.7
2.3pp 1.104xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
NYY vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5
13.7%Fangorn 17.9%market -4.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
58 IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
14.0%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.3pp
P 15.3
F 14.0
V 13.2
2.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
59 IN
CHC vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
14.0%Fangorn 18.7%market -4.6pp
P 15.7
F 14.0
V 13.7
1.9pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
60 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
13.0%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.0
V 13.4
1.5pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
61 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
13.0%Fangorn 18.2%market -5.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.0
V 14.4
1.4pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
62 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
14.0%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.6pp
P 15.9
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.9pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
63 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
12.3%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.0pp
P 12.4
F 12.3
V 12.9
0.6pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
64 IN
NYM vs MIAJanson Junk · slot 2
13.0%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.4pp
P 14.5
F 13.0
V 14.7
1.7pp 0.985xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
65 IN
MIN vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
4.5%Fangorn 11.0%market -6.5pp
P 8.7
F 4.5
V 12.9
8.4pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
66 IN
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 4
13.7%Fangorn 20.4%market -6.7pp
P 15.3
F 13.7
V 15.7
2.0pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
67 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 4
12.3%Fangorn 19.1%market -6.7pp
P 12.2
F 12.3
V 13.3
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
68 IN
HOU vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.7
V 15.1
1.4pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
69 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4
12.0%Fangorn 19.2%market -7.3pp
P 10.1
F 12.0
V 13.3
3.1pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
70 IN
AZ vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.3pp
P 13.9
F 13.7
V 14.1
0.3pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 4
14.0%Fangorn 22.0%market -7.9pp
P 12.9
F 14.0
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
72 IN
TB vs CWSErick Fedde · slot 1
0.0%Fangorn 8.0%market -8.0pp
P 2.9
F 0.0
V 6.7
6.7pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
PIT vs CINHunter Greene · slot 2
12.3%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.7pp
P 12.8
F 12.3
V 16.8
4.4pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
74 IN
TEX vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2
13.7%Fangorn 22.5%market -8.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 14.7
1.0pp 1.115xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
75 IN
CIN vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 3
12.3%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.4pp
P 12.3
F 12.3
V 16.6
4.3pp 1.083xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
76 IN
CWS vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3
10.8%Fangorn 23.3%market -12.4pp
P 11.0
F 10.8
V 11.7
0.8pp 1.036xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
77 IN
PHI vs BALBrandon Young · slot 3
13.7%Fangorn 27.0%market -13.3pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.031xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
78 IN
SEA vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
11.9%Fangorn 26.3%market -14.4pp
P 14.4
F 11.9
V 14.4
2.5pp 0.946xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
79 IN
LAD vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
13.0%Fangorn 29.0%market -15.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.0
V 16.4
4.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2464roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.