Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
70
Matched
288
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
 15.8%Fangorn 9.1%market +6.7pp
P 15.5
F 15.8
V 10.7
5.1pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 9.3%market +4.4pp
P 12.7
F 13.7
V 9.1
4.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
03
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.7pp
P 8.5
F 12.4
V 10.0
3.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
04
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 9.7%market +3.1pp
P 9.2
F 12.7
V 10.1
3.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
05
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
 15.3%Fangorn 12.3%market +2.9pp
P 14.0
F 15.3
V 14.9
1.3pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
06
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
 12.5%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.7pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 9.7
2.8pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
07
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 12.7%Fangorn 10.1%market +2.6pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 10.6
2.2pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
08
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 12.4%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.9pp
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 9.0
3.4pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
09
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 11.8%market +1.9pp
P 15.1
F 13.7
V 11.5
3.6pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
10
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
 13.9%Fangorn 12.1%market +1.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 9.6
4.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
11
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 12.5%Fangorn 10.9%market +1.6pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 9.3
3.2pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
12
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 15.3%Fangorn 13.7%market +1.5pp
P 17.0
F 15.3
V 14.4
2.6pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
13
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
 14.3%Fangorn 13.1%market +1.2pp
P 17.6
F 14.3
V 12.2
5.4pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
14
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 12.7%market +0.9pp
P 15.1
F 13.7
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
15
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 12.3%market +0.9pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 13.1
1.5pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
16
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
 11.2%Fangorn 10.5%market +0.7pp
P 12.8
F 11.2
V 10.3
2.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 13.3%market +0.6pp
P 14.7
F 13.9
V 12.4
2.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
18
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 12.0%market +0.4pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 10.8
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
19
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 13.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -0.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 9.6
F 12.4
V 18.1
8.5pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
21
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 6
 13.7%Fangorn 14.3%market -0.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
22
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 13.9%Fangorn 14.7%market -0.8pp
P 16.5
F 13.9
V 12.8
3.7pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
23
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 12.7%Fangorn 14.1%market -1.3pp
P 12.6
F 12.7
V 14.7
2.1pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
24
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 11.7%Fangorn 13.1%market -1.4pp
P 11.8
F 11.7
V 10.7
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
25
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 14.3%Fangorn 15.8%market -1.4pp
P 17.2
F 14.3
V 13.8
3.4pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
26
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 15.6%market -1.7pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 13.3
1.7pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
27
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 11.5%Fangorn 13.4%market -1.9pp
P 12.8
F 11.5
V 11.8
1.3pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
28
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 14.7%market -2.0pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 12.2
0.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 580 avg 3 books
29
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 4
 13.2%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
30
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 5
 13.7%Fangorn 16.1%market -2.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 15.2
1.5pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
31
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 14.3%market -2.6pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 12.4
1.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
32
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 14.3%Fangorn 17.0%market -2.6pp
P 15.7
F 14.3
V 16.6
2.3pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.6pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
34
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 15.9%market -2.7pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
35
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
 13.9%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.1pp
P 16.5
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
36
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.8pp
P 16.9
F 13.9
V 16.6
3.0pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
37
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.7%market -3.8pp
P 16.4
F 13.9
V 13.5
2.9pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
38
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 17.5%market -3.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 16.3
2.6pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
39
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 13.7%Fangorn 17.7%market -4.0pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 20.2
6.5pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
40
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 16.7
F 13.9
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
41
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
 0.0%Fangorn 9.2%market -9.2pp
P 8.9
F 0.0
V 9.7
9.6pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
42
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 11.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 7.1
F 11.6
V 16.8
9.8pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 11.2%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.5pp
P 6.5
F 11.2
V 11.3
4.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44
Xavier Edwards MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 10.6%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.0pp
P 5.7
F 10.6
V 9.2
4.9pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 11.2%Fangorn 8.3%market +2.9pp
P 7.0
F 11.2
V 13.3
6.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
46
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 16.0%market -2.3pp
P 11.2
F 13.7
V 13.7
2.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
47
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
48
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 13.9%Fangorn 16.3%market -2.4pp
P 12.4
F 13.9
V 11.2
2.7pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
49
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 13.2%Fangorn 17.0%market -3.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
50
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 11.5%Fangorn 15.3%market -3.7pp
P 12.1
F 11.5
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
51
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 17.9%market -4.0pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 14.5
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
52
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 2
 15.8%Fangorn 19.8%market -4.0pp
P 15.8
F 15.8
V 13.2
2.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
53
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.2pp
P 11.0
F 12.7
V 14.6
3.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
54
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.3pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 12.6
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
55
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 13.7%Fangorn 18.0%market -4.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 19.8
6.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
56
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 18.4%market -4.5pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 12.2
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
57
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 18.5%market -4.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 14.8
0.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
58
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
 13.7%Fangorn 19.1%market -5.4pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 16.8
3.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
59
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 13.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -5.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
60
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 4
 12.7%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 15.7
3.0pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
61
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 19.6%market -5.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.9
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
62
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 13.2%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
63
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.3pp
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
64
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 6
 12.7%Fangorn 19.2%market -6.5pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 12.3
0.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
65
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 4
 13.9%Fangorn 20.8%market -6.9pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 13.0
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
66
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 20.2%market -7.0pp
P 15.1
F 13.2
V 16.2
2.9pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
67
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 13.7%Fangorn 21.1%market -7.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 13.0
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
68
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.5pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 16.2
2.9pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
69
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 13.2%Fangorn 21.7%market -8.5pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
70
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 1
 13.9%Fangorn 29.8%market -16.0pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 20.1
6.2pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2533roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.