Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
70
Matched
288
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-04 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Lane Thomas KC
Lineup pending
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
 18.1%Valinor 12.5%market +5.1pp
P 9.6
F 12.4
V 18.1
8.5pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 20.2%Valinor 16.9%market +2.6pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 20.2
6.5pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
03
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
 14.9%Valinor 12.3%market +2.2pp
P 14.0
F 15.3
V 14.9
1.3pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
04
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
 10.7%Valinor 9.1%market +1.3pp
P 15.5
F 15.8
V 10.7
5.1pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
05
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 10.0%Valinor 8.7%market +1.0pp
P 8.5
F 12.4
V 10.0
3.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
06
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 14.7%Valinor 13.5%market +0.7pp
P 12.6
F 12.7
V 14.7
2.1pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
07
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
 9.7%Valinor 8.7%market +0.6pp
P 8.9
F 0.0
V 9.7
9.6pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books
08
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5
 13.1%Valinor 12.3%market +0.3pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 13.1
1.5pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
09
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5
 14.4%Valinor 13.7%market +0.1pp
P 17.0
F 15.3
V 14.4
2.6pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 600 avg 3 books
10
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 5
 10.1%Valinor 9.7%market +0.1pp
P 9.2
F 12.7
V 10.1
3.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
11
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 2
 10.6%Valinor 10.1%market +0.1pp
P 12.3
F 12.7
V 10.6
2.2pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
12
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
 16.6%Valinor 16.4%market -0.3pp
P 15.7
F 14.3
V 16.6
2.3pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
13
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2
 12.9%Valinor 13.3%market -0.4pp
P 15.1
F 13.7
V 12.9
2.2pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
14
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
 9.7%Valinor 9.9%market -0.6pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 9.7
2.8pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
15
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 3
 10.3%Valinor 10.6%market -0.6pp
P 12.8
F 11.2
V 10.3
2.5pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
16
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 1
 11.5%Valinor 11.8%market -0.8pp
P 15.1
F 13.7
V 11.5
3.6pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
17
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 3
 9.1%Valinor 9.5%market -0.8pp
P 12.7
F 13.7
V 9.1
4.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
18
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 15.3%market -1.0pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
19
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 5
 15.2%Valinor 15.7%market -1.0pp
P 14.6
F 13.7
V 15.2
1.5pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
20
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
 16.6%Valinor 17.1%market -1.1pp
P 16.9
F 13.9
V 16.6
3.0pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
21
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 2
 16.0%Valinor 16.5%market -1.1pp
P 16.5
F 13.9
V 16.0
2.6pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
22
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 4
 16.3%Valinor 17.1%market -1.4pp
P 14.5
F 13.7
V 16.3
2.6pp 1.090xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
23
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs PHIJesús Luzardo · slot 1
 12.4%Valinor 13.4%market -1.5pp
P 14.7
F 13.9
V 12.4
2.3pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 620 avg 3 books
24
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs NYYRyan Weathers · slot 2
 12.2%Valinor 13.2%market -1.5pp
P 17.6
F 14.3
V 12.2
5.4pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
25
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6
 11.8%Valinor 13.0%market -1.7pp
P 12.8
F 11.5
V 11.8
1.3pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
26
Brenton Doyle COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
 10.8%Valinor 12.6%market -1.8pp
P 10.7
F 12.4
V 10.8
1.7pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 695 avg 3 books
27
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 12.8%Valinor 14.2%market -1.9pp
P 16.5
F 13.9
V 12.8
3.7pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
28
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 13.8%market -1.9pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 12.4
1.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
29
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 6
 9.0%Valinor 10.6%market -2.0pp
P 9.7
F 12.4
V 9.0
3.4pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
30
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1
 13.8%Valinor 15.3%market -2.0pp
P 17.2
F 14.3
V 13.8
3.4pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
31
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
 9.3%Valinor 10.9%market -2.0pp
P 9.9
F 12.5
V 9.3
3.2pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 785 avg 3 books
32
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 13.3%Valinor 15.1%market -2.3pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 13.3
1.7pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
 13.6%Valinor 15.3%market -2.3pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 13.6
1.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
34
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
 10.7%Valinor 13.1%market -2.4pp
P 11.8
F 11.7
V 10.7
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
35
Agustín Ramírez MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 4
 12.2%Valinor 14.2%market -2.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 12.2
0.8pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
36
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 4
 12.9%Valinor 15.0%market -2.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.2
V 12.9
0.8pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
37
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 3
 9.6%Valinor 12.7%market -3.1pp
P 14.4
F 13.9
V 9.6
4.8pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
38
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 11.0%Valinor 13.6%market -3.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 11.0
2.7pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
39
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4
 15.2%Valinor 17.7%market -3.1pp
P 16.7
F 13.9
V 15.2
2.8pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
40
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 6
 10.4%Valinor 13.8%market -3.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 10.4
3.3pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
41
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 1
 13.5%Valinor 17.2%market -4.3pp
P 16.4
F 13.9
V 13.5
2.9pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
42
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 1
 20.1%Valinor 29.3%market -10.2pp
P 15.1
F 13.9
V 20.1
6.2pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
43
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1
 16.8%Valinor 7.7%market +8.8pp
P 7.1
F 11.6
V 16.8
9.8pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
44
Steven Kwan CLE
IN
CLE vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 13.3%Valinor 8.3%market +4.6pp
P 7.0
F 11.2
V 13.3
6.3pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1060 avg 3 books
45
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
 11.3%Valinor 7.7%market +3.3pp
P 6.5
F 11.2
V 11.3
4.9pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
46
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 19.8%Valinor 17.2%market +1.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.7
V 19.8
6.1pp 1.039xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
47
Xavier Edwards MIA
Lineup pending
MIA vs ATLGrant Holmes · slot 1
 9.2%Valinor 7.7%market +1.2pp
P 5.7
F 10.6
V 9.2
4.9pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 14.8%market -1.4pp
P 12.1
F 11.5
V 13.9
2.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
49
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs CWSDavis Martin · slot 4
 14.4%Valinor 15.7%market -1.9pp
P 14.9
F 13.9
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
50
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 14.6%Valinor 16.4%market -2.4pp
P 11.0
F 12.7
V 14.6
3.6pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
51
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 13.7%Valinor 15.6%market -2.4pp
P 11.2
F 13.7
V 13.7
2.5pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
52
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 14.7%Valinor 16.5%market -2.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.5pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
53
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 3
 16.8%Valinor 18.6%market -2.5pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 16.8
3.1pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
54
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 17.9%market -2.8pp
P 12.9
F 12.7
V 15.7
3.0pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
55
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 14.5%Valinor 17.4%market -3.5pp
P 15.0
F 13.9
V 14.5
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
56
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 15.6%Valinor 18.8%market -3.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 15.6
2.4pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
57
Riley Greene DET
IN
DET vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 14.8%Valinor 18.1%market -3.9pp
P 14.3
F 13.9
V 14.8
0.9pp 0.893xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
58
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 2
 16.2%Valinor 19.7%market -4.3pp
P 15.1
F 13.2
V 16.2
2.9pp 1.150xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 390 avg 3 books
59
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 5
 14.8%Valinor 18.6%market -4.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 14.8
1.1pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
60
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 14.9%Valinor 19.1%market -4.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.7
V 14.9
1.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
61
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs CLEJoey Cantillo · slot 2
 14.7%Valinor 18.9%market -4.9pp
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 14.7
1.6pp 0.959xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
62
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs STLHunter Dobbins · slot 6
 11.2%Valinor 15.7%market -5.1pp
P 12.4
F 13.9
V 11.2
2.7pp 1.032xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
63
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
 12.6%Valinor 17.4%market -5.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.7
V 12.6
1.1pp 0.961xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
64
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3
 16.2%Valinor 21.2%market -5.8pp
P 14.2
F 13.2
V 16.2
2.9pp 1.069xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
65
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 1
 12.2%Valinor 17.9%market -6.3pp
P 15.4
F 13.9
V 12.2
3.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
66
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2
 15.3%Valinor 21.2%market -6.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.020xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
67
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 2
 13.2%Valinor 19.3%market -6.8pp
P 15.8
F 15.8
V 13.2
2.7pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
68
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs CHCJavier Assad · slot 6
 12.3%Valinor 18.8%market -7.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.7
V 12.3
0.7pp 1.054xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
69
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs BALCade Povich · slot 4
 13.0%Valinor 20.3%market -8.0pp
P 14.5
F 13.9
V 13.0
1.5pp 1.038xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
70
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs SDRandy Vásquez · slot 2
 13.0%Valinor 20.5%market -8.3pp
P 14.0
F 13.7
V 13.0
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2533roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.